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The Effects of Household Debt on Consumption and Economic Growth: Focusing on Macro Data
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가계부채가 가계소비와 경제성장에 미치는 영향: 거시자료를 중심으로

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Type
Academic journal
Author
Journal
아시아.유럽미래학회 유라시아연구 유라시아연구 제16권 제3호 KCI Accredited Journals
Published
2019.1
Pages
101 - 122 (22page)

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The Effects of Household Debt on Consumption and Economic Growth: Focusing on Macro Data
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The nation has seen its household debt growth rate fall since 2017 due to government efforts to increase household debt, but it is still above economic growth and consumption growth rates, raising interest in household debt. In particular, it would be important to look at the effects of household debt on the real economy at this point as the positive effects on consumption and growth through household debt growth and the burden of repayment of loans persist amid increasing uncertainties in the global economy and the continued slump in the domestic economy. Therefore, this study empirically analyzed the relationship between household debt, consumption and growth using the OLS method and GMM method from the fourth quarter of 2003 to the first quarter of 2019. The results showed that while household debt growth has a positive impact on consumption and economic growth, the ratio of household debt/potential GDP has a negative impact on consumption and growth. This suggests that the rise in household debt will boost consumption and growth with eased liquidity constraints, but the burden of repayment of borrowing from accumulated household debt is likely to increase, constraining consumption and growth. It also confirmed that despite the recent decline in household debt growth, the sluggish domestic economy has led to a further rise in negative contributions to consumption and growth. Thus, from a mid- to long-term perspective, policy measures should be devised to control the pace of household debt and stimulate consumption and economic growth.
#Household debt growth rate #economic growth #consumption growth rate #potential GDP #GMM

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강종구 / 2017 / 가계부채가 소비와 경제성장에 미치는 영향 - 유량효과와 저량효과 분석 - / 경제분석 23(2):28~57 google schola 김현정 / 2009 / 가계부채가 소비에 미치는 영향 : 미시자료를 중심으로 / 경제분석 15(3):1~36 google schola 민인식 / 2010 / STATA 패널데이터 분석 / 한국STATA학회 google schola 심혜인 / 2017 / 가계부채와 국내소비: 실증분석 및 금융정책적 시사점 / 한국증권학회지 46(1):249~273 dbpia 유경원 / 2015 / 가계부채 확대가 실물부문 리스크에 미치는 영향 / 한국경제의 분석 21(1):65~134 google schola

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