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What will the North Korean economy look like after the five years from now? Ever since the Feb. 13 agreement, especially the summit agreement between South and North Korean leader in October 2007, a wide range of views have been voiced with regard to the future direction of the North korean economy. Kim Jong-il’s economic policy, which has begun to increasingly take shape since the implementation of the Economic Management Improvement Measures in July 2002, can be said to represent a third-style of socialist economy. In other words, it is neither a rapid transformation to a capitalist economy as was the case in Russia and in Eastern Europe, nor the gradually reformed socialism that China and Vietnam have adopted.
This paper discusses what will be reformed and opened, that is to say a minimum and maximum level of the reform and openness in the Kim Jong-il’s economic system, the same during the five years from Oct. 4 summit agreement, after which North Korea began trying to change its economy in accordance with its version of socialism. The current state of the North Korean economy makes certain things clear. Difficult though it may be to predict how the quantitative aspects of the North Korean economy will change, there is general agreement that it prefers openness-oriented economic change to reform-oriented economic change. Therefore, we will may not find a significant differences between the minimum and maximum level of the reform in the Kim Jong-il’s economic system. However, there will be expected a differential treatment and rapid change in Special Economic Zones.
This paper discusses what will be reformed and opened, that is to say a minimum and maximum level of the reform and openness in the Kim Jong-il’s economic system, the same during the five years from Oct. 4 summit agreement, after which North Korea began trying to change its economy in accordance with its version of socialism. The current state of the North Korean economy makes certain things clear. Difficult though it may be to predict how the quantitative aspects of the North Korean economy will change, there is general agreement that it prefers openness-oriented economic change to reform-oriented economic change. Therefore, we will may not find a significant differences between the minimum and maximum level of the reform in the Kim Jong-il’s economic system. However, there will be expected a differential treatment and rapid change in Special Economic Zones.
목차
1. 머리말
2. 분석 관점과 예측지표의 설정
3. 체제 내구력의 변화와 정책집단
4. 개혁?개방의 최소치와 최대치
5. 맺음말
참고문헌
Abstract
참고문헌 (27)
참고문헌 신청
1. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Bruce Bueno de Mesquita / / 북한의 경제개혁과 김정일 정권의 내구력 분석 / 통일연구
2. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Dick K. Nanto / / 미국의 국익, 전략, 정책 / KDI 북한 경제리뷰 9 (6)
3. [학술지(정기간행물)] - 김광일 / 2007 / 부동산에 대한 통계적 연구에서 제기되는 몇 가지 방법론적 문제 / 경제연구 (136)
4. [학술지(정기간행물)] - 김래은 / / 북한 ‘부동산사용료’ 제정 현황과 의미 / 통일과 국토
5. [기타자료] - 김병욱 / 2007 / 북한사회에서 붉은 자본가 등장 가능성,” 북한에 대한 오해와 진실 (2): 토대와 성분
2. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Dick K. Nanto / / 미국의 국익, 전략, 정책 / KDI 북한 경제리뷰 9 (6)
3. [학술지(정기간행물)] - 김광일 / 2007 / 부동산에 대한 통계적 연구에서 제기되는 몇 가지 방법론적 문제 / 경제연구 (136)
4. [학술지(정기간행물)] - 김래은 / / 북한 ‘부동산사용료’ 제정 현황과 의미 / 통일과 국토
5. [기타자료] - 김병욱 / 2007 / 북한사회에서 붉은 자본가 등장 가능성,” 북한에 대한 오해와 진실 (2): 토대와 성분
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