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논문 기본 정보
- 자료유형
- 학술저널
- 저자정보
- 발행연도
- 2008.1
- 수록면
- 113 - 124 (12page)
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This paper examines the outlook for North Korea’s economic and political future. It
argues that North Korea will most probably meet its demise in the same way as did the
former Soviet Union. That is, an economic implosion will occur causing the political
collapse of North Korea. Contrary to popular belief that North Korea would sustain
itself if it reformed its economic policies, this paper argues that, regardless of reform,
North Korea will not be able to avoid the collapse of the state*and the Kim regime, for
that matter. The only impact reform will have is with regard to time as it will merely
delay the process of North Korea’s collapse. The author wishes to stress that these
assessments of North Korea’s future will probably show a greater impact after Kim Jong
Il has passed. It is unlikely that North Korea or the regime will collapse under Kim Jong
Il’s reign because his regime still has a strong authoritative grip over his state, which he
controls by being the commander of the North Korean People’s Army and various
paramilitary apparatuses, and by control of the media. However, the decisions that Kim
Jong Il makes now will be the indirect cause of various unintended consequences in the
future. Once the economy of North Korea develops core values that are somewhat
similar to the South’s, it is highly likely that Seoul, with its economic leverage, will gain
political leverage over Pyongyang. This will ultimately have its effects in reunifying the
Korean peninsula under Seoul’s terms after Kim Jong Il’s passing. The author reiterates
that both, the status quo or the reform option, will eventually lead to the North’s
collapse. The difference will be in regard to when.
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참고문헌 (15)
참고문헌 신청
/ / http://www.janes.com/security/international_security/news/jdw/jdw061009_2_n.shtml
Donald G. Gross / 2006 / U.S.-Korea Relations: North Korea Rolls the Dice and Conducts Missile Tests / Comparative Connections: A Quarterly E-Journal on East Asian Bilateral
Elizabeth Kirby / 2006 / North Korea’s Move to Market Economy: Is Reunification with South Korea Necessary? / North Korean Review 2 (1) : 71 ~
Kang-Taeg Lim / 2006 / North Korea Economic Reform and Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation: Prospects for Future Development / Korea and World Affairs (Spring) : 34 ~
Marcus Noland / 2007 / Famine In North Korea / Columbia University Press : 218 ~
Elizabeth Kirby / 2006 / North Korea’s Move to Market Economy: Is Reunification with South Korea Necessary? / North Korean Review 2 (1) : 71 ~
Kang-Taeg Lim / 2006 / North Korea Economic Reform and Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation: Prospects for Future Development / Korea and World Affairs (Spring) : 34 ~
Marcus Noland / 2007 / Famine In North Korea / Columbia University Press : 218 ~
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