Empirical model for estimating dengue incidence using temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity: a 19-year retrospective analysis in East Delhi

Vishnampettai G. Ramachandran; Priyamvada Roy; Shukla Das; Narendra Singh Mogha; Ajay Kumar Bansal

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자료유형: 학술저널

저자정보: Vishnampettai G. Ramachandran (University College of Medical Sciences and Guru Teg Bahadur Hospital) Priyamvada Roy (University College of Medical Sciences and Guru Teg Bahadur Hospital) Shukla Das (University College of Medical Sciences and Guru Teg Bahadur Hospital) Narendra Singh Mogha (University College of Medical Sciences and Guru Teg Bahadur Hospital) Ajay Kumar Bansal (University College of Medical Sciences and Guru Teg Bahadur Hospital)

저널정보: 한국역학회 Epidemiology and Health Epidemiology and Health Vol.38

발행연도: 2016.1

수록면: 1 - 8 (8page)

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OBJECTIVES: Aedes mosquitoes are responsible for transmitting the dengue virus. The mosquito lifecycle is known to be influenced by temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity. This retrospective study was planned to investigate whether climatic factors could be used to predict the occurrence of dengue in East Delhi. METHODS: The number of monthly dengue cases reported over 19 years was obtained from the laboratory records of our institution. Monthly data of rainfall, temperature, and humidity collected from a local weather station were correlated with the number of monthly reported dengue cases. One-way analysis of variance was used to analyse whether the climatic parameters differed significantly among seasons. Four models were developed using negative binomial generalized linear model analysis. Monthly rainfall, temperature, humidity, were used as independent variables, and the number of dengue cases reported monthly was used as the dependent variable. The first model considered data from the same month, while the other three models involved incorporating data with a lag phase of 1, 2, and 3 months, respectively. RESULTS: The greatest number of cases was reported during the post-monsoon period each year. Temperature, rainfall, and humidity varied significantly across the pre-monsoon, monsoon, and post-monsoon periods. The best correlation between these three climatic factors and dengue occurrence was at a time lag of 2 months. CONCLUSIONS: This study found that temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity significantly affected dengue occurrence in East Delhi. This weather-based dengue empirical model can forecast potential outbreaks 2-month in advance, providing an early warning system for intensifying dengue control measures.

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