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논문 기본 정보
- 자료유형
- 학술저널
- 저자정보
- 저널정보
- 한국전산응용수학회 The Korean journal of computational & applied mathematics, 한국전산응용수학술지 Series A The Korean journal of computational & applied mathematics, 한국전산응용수학술지 Series A 제5권 제2호
- 발행연도
- 1998.1
- 수록면
- 373 - 382 (10page)
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Most of the works in Time Series Analysis are based on the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models presented by Box and Jeckins(1976). If the data exhibits no ap-parent deviation from stationarity and if it has rapidly decreasing autocorrelation function then a suitable ARIMA(p,q) model is fit to the given data. Selection of the orders of p and q is one of the crucial steps in Time Series Analysis. Most of the methods to determine p and q are based on the autocorrelation function and partial autocor-relation function as suggested by Box and Jenkins (1976). many new techniques have emerged in the literature and it is found that most of them are over very little use in determining the orders of p and q when both of them are non-zero. The Durbin-Levinson algorithm and Innovation algorithm (Brockwell and Davis 1987) are used as recur-sive methods for computing best linear predictors in an ARMA(p,q)model. These algorithms are modified to yield an effective method for ARMA model identification so that the values of order p and q can be determined from them. The new method is developed and its validity and usefulness is illustrated by many theoretical examples. This method can also be applied to an real world data.
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