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논문 기본 정보
- 자료유형
- 학술저널
- 저자정보
- 발행연도
- 2020.1
- 수록면
- 229 - 250 (22page)
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This paper attempts to predict ex ante the 21st National Assembly election in 2020. As a short history of elections in Korean makes it improbable to rely on aggregate-level data, this paper proposes an alternative approach that utilized individual-level data from post-election surveys in the past four National Assembly elections. First, we estimate how probabilities of each demographic group to vote for major parties had changed over time. Then, estimated probabilities are combined with the actual demographic composition of the Korean electorate to produce the prediction of how each group is expected to vote in an upcoming election. Then, we predict how expected vote shares of each party may translate into their seat shares in each region. In conclusion, we compare our forecasts with the actual outcome of the 21st National Assembly election and discuss the implication regarding the change in electoral landscape in Korea.
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참고문헌 (46)
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Abramowitz, Alan I. / 2018 / Will Democrats Catch a Wave? The Generic Ballot Model and the 2018 US House Elections / Political Science & Politics 51(S1):4~6
Achen, Christopher H. / 2016 / Democracy for Realists: Why Elections Do Not Produce Responsive Government / Princeton University Press
Anderson, Christopher J. / 2007 / The End of Economic Voting? Contingency Dilemmas and the Limits of Democratic Accountability / Annual Review of Political Science 10:271~296
Anderson, Christopher J. / 2004 / Endogenous Economic Voting : Evidence from the 1997 British Election / Electoral Studies 23(4):683~708
Bafumi, Joseph / 2018 / Forecasting the 2018Midterm Election using National Polls and District Information / Political Science & Politics 51(S1):7~11
Achen, Christopher H. / 2016 / Democracy for Realists: Why Elections Do Not Produce Responsive Government / Princeton University Press
Anderson, Christopher J. / 2007 / The End of Economic Voting? Contingency Dilemmas and the Limits of Democratic Accountability / Annual Review of Political Science 10:271~296
Anderson, Christopher J. / 2004 / Endogenous Economic Voting : Evidence from the 1997 British Election / Electoral Studies 23(4):683~708
Bafumi, Joseph / 2018 / Forecasting the 2018Midterm Election using National Polls and District Information / Political Science & Politics 51(S1):7~11
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