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Movie Performance Indicators to Predict for Investors
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영화 투자자를 위한 흥행성과 예측지표 발굴

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Type
Academic journal
Author
Journal
The Korean Data Analysis Society Journal of The Korean Data Analysis Society Journal of The Korean Data Analysis Society 제19권 제4호 KCI Accredited Journals
Published
2017.1
Pages
1,963 - 1,975 (13page)

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Movie Performance Indicators to Predict for Investors
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Abstract· Keywords

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The purpose of this study is to find meaningful investment indicators from the point of view of general investors who invest in movies in the early stage of making by way of crowd-funding. It is analyzed by using supervised learning techniques such as decision trees, regression, and ANN. As a result of the analysis, the decision tree model was derived as genre, grade, real story, presence of original work, and actor (star) power as the main variables that determine the box office. In the regression model, the actor power, grade (over 12 & 15 years old), genre (SF) and real story showed a significant positive value. In addition, the interaction between movie genres and seasons shows that the performances of drama, horror, romance released in the spring and action, crime, historical drama released in the summer and action, crime, historical drama, action released in the fall are good respectively. Finally, in the ANN, 12 input variables were used to derive a highly accurate model with a predictive power of 87.7%. Based on the results derived from the 3 methods of this study, it is expected that investors will make more reasonable decisions based on evidence when investing in the movie industry.
#영화산업 #크라우드 펀딩 #의사결정나무 #다중회귀분석 #인공신경망. #movie industry #crowd funding #decision tree #multiple regression #artificial neural network.

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References (19)

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Chung, Y. K. / 2002 / Video distribution in multi-channel era / Korea Creative Content Agency google schola Eliashberg, J. / 1997 / Film critics : Influencers or predictors? / Journal of Marketing 61 (2) : 68 ~ 78 google schola Kim, H. J. / 1998 / The star power analysis of Korean movie star / Review of Cultural Economics 1 (1) : 165 ~ 200 google schola Korean Flim Council / 2016 / 2014 survey on the actual condition of Korean film industry and profitability analysis of Korean movie investment google schola Litman, B. / 1983 / Predicting Success of Theatrical Movies: An Empirical Study / Journal of Popular Culture 16 (Spring) : 159 ~ 175 google schola

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