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This paper describes a probabilistic annual congestion cost assessment of a grid at a composite power system derived from a model. This probabilistic congestion cost assessment simulation model includes capacity limitation and uncertainties of the generators and transmission lines. In this paper, the proposed probabilistic congestion cost assessment model is focused on an annualized simulation methodology for solving long-term grid expansion planning issues. It emphasizes the questions of "how should the uncertainties of system elements (generators, lines and transformers, etc.) be considered for annual congestion cost assessment from the macro economic view point?". This simulation methodology comes essentially from a probabilistic production cost simulation model of composite power systems. This type of model comes from a nodal equivalent load duration curve based on a new effective load model at load points. The characteristics and effectiveness of this new simulation model are illustrated by several case studies of a test system.

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Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Probabilistic Annual Congestion Cost Assessment and Probalistic Production Cost Simulation At a Composite Power System
3. Case Stduies
4. Conclusions
5. Acknowledgement
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UCI(KEPA) : I410-ECN-0101-2010-560-001873896