지원사업
학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
커뮤니티
연구자들이 자신의 연구와 전문성을 널리 알리고, 새로운 협력의 기회를 만들 수 있는 네트워킹 공간이에요.
초록· 키워드
오류제보하기
The present study aims at developing a traffic accident forecasting model using the data of traffic accident rate based upon motorization from 1962 to 1989 in korea and to forecast a short term of traffic accidents. For such a purpose, the regression analysis method was used to analyze in connection with the variables of the motorization and the traffic accidents per 100,000 persons and 10,000 vehioles.
The results of this study are as follows.
1. The rate of increase of population in korea is getting blunt gradually, but the number of vehicles and traffic accidents has increased. In fact the number of populations, vehicles and traffic accidents increased in 1989 over the previous year by 0.96%, 30.69% and 13.65% respectively.
2. The accident rate of population in korea is increasing generally. in meantime the trend of accident rate of vehicle is likely to be decreased, and motorization is increasing 25.75% annually since the year of 19&1 and it is expected to be increased continuously in the years coming. Also shown by the result of analysis of relation to accident rate and motorization is the number of accidents with deaths and injuries per 100,00} persons that was increased by 10.48%, 7.11% and 10.10% in number annually since 1970 respectively, meanwhile it shows that in number per 10,000 vehicles annually during the same period respectively.
3. The forecasting model regarding the traffic accidents, which was formulated for this study, has shown over 95% of the total accidents and proved to be useful in light of the result of the model diagnostics.
4. It is extrapolated that the traffic accident in korea may take place as follows on condition that the traffic environment would worsen ; in 1992414,800 accidents with 15,900 deaths and 505,100 injuries, in 1994 571,800 accidents with 19,500 deaths and 684,300 injuries respectively.
The results of this study are as follows.
1. The rate of increase of population in korea is getting blunt gradually, but the number of vehicles and traffic accidents has increased. In fact the number of populations, vehicles and traffic accidents increased in 1989 over the previous year by 0.96%, 30.69% and 13.65% respectively.
2. The accident rate of population in korea is increasing generally. in meantime the trend of accident rate of vehicle is likely to be decreased, and motorization is increasing 25.75% annually since the year of 19&1 and it is expected to be increased continuously in the years coming. Also shown by the result of analysis of relation to accident rate and motorization is the number of accidents with deaths and injuries per 100,00} persons that was increased by 10.48%, 7.11% and 10.10% in number annually since 1970 respectively, meanwhile it shows that in number per 10,000 vehicles annually during the same period respectively.
3. The forecasting model regarding the traffic accidents, which was formulated for this study, has shown over 95% of the total accidents and proved to be useful in light of the result of the model diagnostics.
4. It is extrapolated that the traffic accident in korea may take place as follows on condition that the traffic environment would worsen ; in 1992414,800 accidents with 15,900 deaths and 505,100 injuries, in 1994 571,800 accidents with 19,500 deaths and 684,300 injuries respectively.
목차
ABSTRACT
Ⅰ. 序論
Ⅱ. 교통사고 위험도의 이론적 고찰
Ⅲ. 社會的要因의 變化와 交通事故推移
Ⅳ. 交通事故危險度 고찰
Ⅴ. 交通事故率豫測模型의 開發과 事故의 短期豫測
Ⅵ. 결론
註
參考文獻
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