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An Analysis on the Relationship between Revenue and Expenditure in the Integrated Finance of Busan Metropolitan City - Application of Nonlinear ARDL Model
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지방자치제 시행 전과 후의 부산시 통합재정의 세입과 세출의 연관관계 비교 분석: 비대칭 ARDL모형의 적용

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Type
Academic journal
Author
Jung Yong Seok (신라대학교)
Journal
The Korean Association for Local Government Studies The Korean Journal of Local Government Studies Vol.25 No.1 KCI Accredited Journals
Published
2021.5
Pages
281 - 307 (27page)

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An Analysis on the Relationship between Revenue and Expenditure in the Integrated Finance of Busan Metropolitan City - Application of Nonlinear ARDL Model
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The purpose of this paper is to analyze and compare the long-term relationship between revenue and expenditure of the integrated finance of Busan Metropolitan City from 1963-1991 (before the implementation of the local autonomy system: 1 period) and 1992-2018 (the implementation of the local autonomy system:2 period). For this, the empirical analysis applied a nonlinear autoregressive lag distribution (Nardl) model. Prior to the implementation of the local autonomy system, revenues consisted of a relationship that regulated expenditure.
In the first period, there was a long-term balanced relationship in the direction that revenues regulated expenditures in Busan"s finances. It means that the Busan city finance was operated under the regulation of the central government. And such a relationship was formed by the cointegration between the positive factors of revenue and expenditure. In the 2 period, the causal direction of revenue and expenditure was the same as in the 1 period, but the long-run equilibrium relationship was changed to a cointegration relationship between negative(-) elements. In the 2 period, there was a long-run asymmetry effect between revenues and expenditures. However, in the 2 period, it has been changed to have no long-run asymmetric effect. the decrease in expenditures due to the decrease in revenues decreased significantly compared to in the first period, and the decrease in revenues due to the decrease in expenditures increased. These estimates show that, with respect to the existence of long-term equilibrium, negative (-) disturbances on finances were corrected at a faster rate than positive (+) disturbances in the second phase. The fact that the increase and decrease in the unit amount of revenue and expenditure are statistically equal to each other can be seen as having important implications in terms of the stability of fiscal management.
Through this analysis, it can be seen that the positive(+) elements of the revenue and expenditure of Busan integrated fiscal revenue and expenditure was stable without significant change, but the negative(-) elements fluctuated and had a large impact. However, in the 2 period, such fluctuations decreased considerably. The results of this analysis show that attention needs to be paid to the asymmetry between the components in determining revenues and expenditures decisions.
#부산시 통합재정 #인과성 #숨은 공적분 #비대칭효과 #Busan consolidated finance #causality #hidden cointegration #Nardl #asymmetric effect

Contents

국문요약
Ⅰ. 서언
Ⅱ. 선행 분석
Ⅲ. 실증분석
Ⅳ. 요약과 결론 및 정책적 함의
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Abstract

References (67)

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부산광역시 / 부산통계연보 google schola 행정자치부 / 지방재정연감 google schola 권경환 / 2005 / 지방정부의 권력구조와 재정지출정향 / 한국사회와 행정연구 16(3):277~298 dbpia 김우철 / 2007 / 세입과 세출의 인과관계에 관한 분석 / 재정포럼 12(1):1~17 google schola 김종구 / 2018 / 실업률과 실질 GDP간 비선형 장․단기 관계분석 / 질서경제저널 21(4):111~130 dbpia

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