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논문 기본 정보
- 자료유형
- 학술저널
- 저자정보
- 저널정보
- 한국통계학회 JKSS(Journal of the Korean Statistical Society) Journal of the Korean Statistical Society 제35권 제1호
- 발행연도
- 2006.1
- 수록면
- 37 - 47 (11page)
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초록· 키워드
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Recently, as a result of the growing interest in modeling stationary processes with discrete marginal distributions, several models for integer valued time series have been proposed in the literature. One of these models is the integer-valued autoregressive (INAR) models. However, when modeling with integer-valued autoregressive processes, the distributional properties of forecasts have been not yet discovered due to the difficulty in handling the Steutal Van Ham thinning operator 'o' (Steutal and van Ham, 1979). In this study, we derive the mean squared error of h-step-ahead prediction from a Poisson INAR(1) process, reflecting the effect of the variability of parameter estimates in the prediction mean squared error.
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