지원사업
학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
커뮤니티
연구자들이 자신의 연구와 전문성을 널리 알리고, 새로운 협력의 기회를 만들 수 있는 네트워킹 공간이에요.
논문 기본 정보
- 자료유형
- 학술저널
- 저자정보
- 발행연도
- 2020.1
- 수록면
- 153 - 165 (13page)
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초록· 키워드
오류제보하기
Background: Well-validated risk prediction models help to identify individuals at high risk of diseases and suggest preventive measures. A recent systematic review reported lack of validated prediction models for low back pain (LBP). We aimed to develop prediction models to estimate the 8-year risk of developing LBP and its re-currence.Methods: A population based prospective cohort study using data from 435,968 participants in the National Health Insurance Service–National Sample Cohort en-rolled from 2002 to 2010. We used Cox proportional hazards models.Results: During median follow-up period of 8.4 years, there were 143,396 (32.9%) first onset LBP cases. The prediction model of first onset consisted of age, sex, in-come grade, alcohol consumption, physical exercise, body mass index (BMI), total cholesterol, blood pressure, and medical history of diseases. The model of 5-year recurrence risk was comprised of age, sex, income grade, BMI, length of prescrip-tion, and medical history of diseases. The Harrell’s C-statistic was 0.812 (95% con-fidence interval [CI], 0.804-0.820) and 0.916 (95% CI, 0.907-0.924) in validation cohorts of LBP onset and recurrence models, respectively. Age, disc degeneration, and sex conferred the highest risk points for onset, whereas age, spondylolisthesis, and disc degeneration conferred the highest risk for recurrence. Conclusions: LBP risk prediction models and simplified risk scores have been de-veloped and validated using data from general medical practice. This study also offers an opportunity for external validation and updating of the models by incorpo-rating other risk predictors in other settings, especially in this era of precision medi-cine.
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등록된 정보가 없습니다.
참고문헌 (50)
참고문헌 신청
Koes BW / 2006 / Diagnosis and treatment of low back pain / BMJ 332:1430~1434
Lambeek LC / 2010 / Effect of integrated care for sick listed patients with chronic low back pain : economic evaluation alongside a randomised controlled trial / BMJ 341:c6414
Andersson GB / 1999 / Epidemiological features of chronic low-back pain / Lancet 354:581~585
Swain MS / 2014 / An international survey of pain in adolescents / BMC Public Health 14:447
Deyo RA / 2006 / Back pain prevalence and visit rates: estimates from U.S. national surveys, 2002 / Spine (Phila Pa 1976) 31:2724~2727
Lambeek LC / 2010 / Effect of integrated care for sick listed patients with chronic low back pain : economic evaluation alongside a randomised controlled trial / BMJ 341:c6414
Andersson GB / 1999 / Epidemiological features of chronic low-back pain / Lancet 354:581~585
Swain MS / 2014 / An international survey of pain in adolescents / BMC Public Health 14:447
Deyo RA / 2006 / Back pain prevalence and visit rates: estimates from U.S. national surveys, 2002 / Spine (Phila Pa 1976) 31:2724~2727
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