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논문 기본 정보

자료유형
학술저널
저자정보
Byoung Moon Joe (Yonsei University) Seung Hwan Jeong (Yonsei University) Kyong Joo Oh (Yonsei University)
저널정보
계명대학교 자연과학연구소 Quantitative Bio-Science Quantitative Bio-Science Vol.38 No.2
발행연도
2019.11
수록면
93 - 104 (12page)

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초록· 키워드

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The Korean stock market has a high proportion of individual investors, and a securities analyst report is an important source of information that individuals refer to during their investment. However, to date, there has been no research on the accuracy of analysts’ forecasts. This study combines analysts and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) methodology to check stock price forecasts. Based on forecasting results, it analyzes whether analysts’ market forecasting ability is reasonable. Of the top five industries expected to outperform the market by analysts at two large securities firms, only one or two were included in the top five return categories after six months. However, two out of the five industries expected to underperform in the market were ranked top one and two in terms of stock price return after six months. The outlook is different from the actual result because the stock market has been driven by momentum rather than fundamentals; the volatility of the global stock market has expanded, and the valuation may not be appropriate even if the analysts accurately estimate the future profit. Therefore, we can conclude that analysts’ forecasts may not be helpful in times of high volatility.

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Abstract
1. Introduction
2. AHP Methodology
3. Composition of Questionnaire
4. Questionnaire Progress and Results
5. Results Analysis
6. Conclusion
References

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