Projected Numbers of Ischemic Strokes Recorded in the Austrian Stroke-Unit Registry from 2012 to 2075

Wolfgang Hitzl; Eugen Trinka; Leonard Seyfang; Sebastian Mutzenbach; Katharina Stadler; Slaven Pikija; Monika Killer; Erasmia Broussalis

Projected Numbers of Ischemic Strokes Recorded in the Austrian Stroke-Unit Registry from 2012 to 2075

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Type: Academic journal

Author: Wolfgang Hitzl Eugen Trinka Leonard Seyfang Sebastian Mutzenbach Katharina Stadler Slaven Pikija Monika Killer Erasmia Broussalis

Journal: 대한신경과학회 Journal of Clinical Neurology Journal of Clinical Neurology 제12권 제4호 KCI Accredited Journals

Published: 2016.1

Pages: 441 - 445 (5page)

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Projected Numbers of Ischemic Strokes Recorded in the Austrian Stroke-Unit Registry from 2012 to 2075

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Background and Purpose This study analyzed the number of patients with ischemic strokes recorded in the Austrian Stroke-Unit Registry with the aim of projecting this number from 2012 to 2075 and to highlight that the Austrian health system will face a dramatic in¬crease in older patients within the next few decades. Methods Current demographic information was obtained from EUROSTAT, and informa¬tion on age- and sex-stratified 1-year incidence rates of ischemic stroke were obtained from the Austrian Stroke-Unit Registry. Sensitivity analysis was performed by analyzing the pro¬jections based on predicted ageing, main, and growth population scenarios, and with stratifi¬cation by age and gender. Results The total number of ischemic strokes recorded in the Austrian Stroke-Unit Regis¬try was 8,690 in 2012 and is expected to increase to 15,826, 15,626, or 18,134 in 2075 accord¬ing to the ageing, main, and growth scenarios, respectively. The corresponding numbers of patients are projected to increase or decrease within different age strata as follows (100%=num¬ber of registered ischemic strokes in 2012): 0–40 years, 100%/99% (males/females); 40–50 years, 83%/83%; 50–60 years, 98%/97%; 60–70 years, 126%/119%; 70–80 years, 159%/139%; 80–90 years, 307%/199%; and 90+ years, 894%/413%. Conclusions The ageing population in Austria will result in the number of patients increasing considerably from 2012 to 2075, to 182%, 180%, or 208% (relative to 100% in 2012) according to the ageing, main, and growth scenarios, respectively; the corresponding value among those aged 80+ years is 315%, 290%, or 347%. These figures demonstrated the importance of improving pri¬mary preventive measures. The results of this study should provide a basis for discussions among health-care professionals and economists to face the future large financial burden of ischemic stroke on the Austrian health system.

#ischemic stroke #projections #stroke unit #Austria #ageing #health system

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