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This paper examines the effects of capital flows on macroeconomic and financial variables in Korea during the 1980s and 1990s using time series techniques. Based on descriptive statistics and empirical results, we can draw the following tentative conclusions.
First, we do find evidence of an independent effect of capital flows on monetary conditions and domestic demand, once other domestic conditions such as inflation and output growth are controlled for. In regards to monetary effects, we found that in Korea, both reserve changes and capital inflows tended to lower interest rates and raise M2. Consumption was found to respond positively to capital inflows. Investment responded positively to capital inflows. Second, notwithstanding the evidence in support of linkages between capital inflows and macroeconomic outcomes, there was mixed evidence in favor of the expected channels of transmission linking the two sets of variables. In regard to monetary effects, regressions applied to Korea sample indicate that the capital account affected M2 mainly by affecting the level of international reserves, as might conventionally be expected. We found mixed evidence in favor of the view that different types of capital inflows exert different effects on macroeconomic performance, When entered separately into regressions on consumption and investment, foreign direct investment and portfolio investment had different estimated effects.
First, we do find evidence of an independent effect of capital flows on monetary conditions and domestic demand, once other domestic conditions such as inflation and output growth are controlled for. In regards to monetary effects, we found that in Korea, both reserve changes and capital inflows tended to lower interest rates and raise M2. Consumption was found to respond positively to capital inflows. Investment responded positively to capital inflows. Second, notwithstanding the evidence in support of linkages between capital inflows and macroeconomic outcomes, there was mixed evidence in favor of the expected channels of transmission linking the two sets of variables. In regard to monetary effects, regressions applied to Korea sample indicate that the capital account affected M2 mainly by affecting the level of international reserves, as might conventionally be expected. We found mixed evidence in favor of the view that different types of capital inflows exert different effects on macroeconomic performance, When entered separately into regressions on consumption and investment, foreign direct investment and portfolio investment had different estimated effects.
목차
Ⅰ. 서론
Ⅱ. 기존 문헌 연구
Ⅲ. 자본의 흐름이 거시 경제변수에 미치는 영향
Ⅳ. 기초 자료 분석
Ⅴ. 실증분석결과
Ⅵ. 결론
參考文獻
ABSTRACT
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UCI(KEPA) : I410-ECN-0101-2010-326-002902005