지원사업
학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
커뮤니티
연구자들이 자신의 연구와 전문성을 널리 알리고, 새로운 협력의 기회를 만들 수 있는 네트워킹 공간이에요.
초록· 키워드
오류제보하기
Most travelers determine their departure time and route through their travel experiences. However, travel time from the past experience is imperfect information implying they choose their departure time and route according to the uncertainty of travel time. This study considers travelers' choice on departure-time and route. It also evaluates effectiveness of information on travel time.
To do this, this study calibrates travelers' expected cost function in each travel time and effective travel time on each route. The important subjects are summarized as follows :
First, calibration of expected cost function in each time level for departure time choice : the expected cost is calibrated using time-values of each case when travelers arrive at their destination earlier or later than their expected arrival time. Here, travelers' perceived travel time from the past experiences is assumed to be normally distributed.
Second, calibration of route cost function : Though travelers depart earlier to avoid traffic congestion, they have their own expected arrival time. So, travelers choose their route using effective travel time consisting of the mean travel time from the past experience and the additional time considering of uncertainty of travel time. The additional time is determined with the variance of perceived travel time distribution.
Finally, development of a combined model of departure time and route choice model using Bi-level programming(Stakelberg game theory) : It is assumed that travelers make a choice of departure time using a minimal mean travel time when effective travel time of all routes are same.
To apply the models, this study adapts two case of travelers having exact travel time information or not. The conclusion is that the travelers postpone their departure time when exact information on travel time is provided. Because of the decrease of uncertainty of their travel time. Furthermore, the travelers prefer reliable routes to those that travel time changes frequently.
To do this, this study calibrates travelers' expected cost function in each travel time and effective travel time on each route. The important subjects are summarized as follows :
First, calibration of expected cost function in each time level for departure time choice : the expected cost is calibrated using time-values of each case when travelers arrive at their destination earlier or later than their expected arrival time. Here, travelers' perceived travel time from the past experiences is assumed to be normally distributed.
Second, calibration of route cost function : Though travelers depart earlier to avoid traffic congestion, they have their own expected arrival time. So, travelers choose their route using effective travel time consisting of the mean travel time from the past experience and the additional time considering of uncertainty of travel time. The additional time is determined with the variance of perceived travel time distribution.
Finally, development of a combined model of departure time and route choice model using Bi-level programming(Stakelberg game theory) : It is assumed that travelers make a choice of departure time using a minimal mean travel time when effective travel time of all routes are same.
To apply the models, this study adapts two case of travelers having exact travel time information or not. The conclusion is that the travelers postpone their departure time when exact information on travel time is provided. Because of the decrease of uncertainty of their travel time. Furthermore, the travelers prefer reliable routes to those that travel time changes frequently.
목차
ABSTRACT
Ⅰ. 硏究의 目的
Ⅱ. 出發時刻-經路選擇結合模型의 開發
Ⅲ. 模型適用의 例
Ⅳ. 結論
參考文獻
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