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논문 기본 정보

자료유형
학술저널
저자정보
Min Kyung-Duk (College of Veterinary Medicine, Chungbuk National University, Cheongju, Korea.) Baek Yae Jee (Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine, College of Medicine, Soonchunhyang University, Asan, Korea.) Hwang Kyungwon (Division of Control for Zoonotic and Vector Borne Disease, Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency, Cheongju, Korea.) Shin Na-Ri (Division of Control for Zoonotic and Vector Borne Disease, Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency, Cheongju, Korea.) Lee So-dam (Division of Control for Zoonotic and Vector Borne Disease, Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency, Cheongju, Korea.) Kan Hyesu (Division of Control for Zoonotic and Vector Borne Disease, Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency, Cheongju, Korea.) Yeom Joon-Sup (Division of Infectious Disease, Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.)
저널정보
대한의학회 Journal of Korean Medical Science Journal of Korean Medical Science Vol.39 No.22
발행연도
2024.6
수록면
1 - 16 (16page)
DOI
10.3346/jkms.2024.39.e176

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Background: Malaria elimination strategies in the Republic of Korea (ROK) have decreased malaria incidence but face challenges due to delayed case detection and response. To improve this, machine learning models for predicting malaria, focusing on high-risk areas, have been developed. Methods: The study targeted the northern region of ROK, near the demilitarized zone, using a 1-km grid to identify areas for prediction. Grid cells without residential buildings were excluded, leaving 8,425 cells. The prediction was based on whether at least one malaria case was reported in each grid cell per month, using spatial data of patient locations. Four algorithms were used: gradient boosted (GBM), generalized linear (GLM), extreme gradient boosted (XGB), and ensemble models, incorporating environmental, sociodemographic, and meteorological data as predictors. The models were trained with data from May to October (2019–2021) and tested with data from May to October 2022. Model performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Results: The AUROC of the prediction models performed excellently (GBM = 0.9243, GLM = 0.9060, XGB = 0.9180, and ensemble model = 0.9301). Previous malaria risk, population size, and meteorological factors influenced the model most in GBM and XGB. Conclusion: Machine-learning models with properly preprocessed malaria case data can provide reliable predictions. Additional predictors, such as mosquito density, should be included in future studies to improve the performance of models.

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