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논문 기본 정보

자료유형
학술저널
저자정보
Hyo-suk Kim (Seoul National University) Ki Seok Do (National Center for Agrometeorology) Joo Hyeon Park (EPINET Corporation) Wee Soo Kang (Rural Development Administration) Yong Hwan Lee (Rural Development Administration) Eun Woo Park (Seoul National University)
저널정보
한국식물병리학회 The Plant Pathology Journal The Plant Pathology Journal 제36권 제1호
발행연도
2020.2
수록면
54 - 66 (13page)

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This study was conducted to evaluate usefulness of numerical weather prediction data generated by the Unified Model (UM) for plant disease forecast. Using the UM06- and UM18-predicted weather data, which were released at 0600 and 1800 Universal Time Coordinated (UTC), respectively, by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), disease forecast on bacterial grain rot (BGR) of rice was examined as compared with the model output based on the automated weather stations (AWS)-observed weather data. We analyzed performance of BGRcast based on the UM-predicted and the AWS-observed daily minimum temperature and average relative humidity in 2014 and 2015 from 29 locations representing major rice growing areas in Korea using regression analysis and two-way contingency table analysis. Temporal changes in weather conduciveness at two locations in 2014 were also analyzed with regard to daily weather conduciveness (C<SUB>i</SUB>) and the 20-day and 7-day moving averages of C<SUB>i</SUB> for the inoculum build-up phase (C<SUB>inc</SUB>) prior to the panicle emergence of rice plants and the infection phase (C<SUB>inf</SUB>) during the heading stage of rice plants, respectively. Based on C<SUB>inc</SUB> and C<SUB>inf</SUB> , we were able to obtain the same disease warnings at all locations regardless of the sources of weather data. In conclusion, the numerical weather prediction data from KMA could be reliable to apply as input data for plant disease forecast models. Weather prediction data would facilitate applications of weather-driven disease models for better disease management. Crop growers would have better options for disease control including both protective and curative measures when weather prediction data are used for disease warning.

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Materials and Methods
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