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Modeling the Korean Crop Market under the Yield Uncertainty Using the Stochastic Approach
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확률적 기법을 이용한 단수 불확실성 하에서의 곡물모형 구축

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Type
Academic journal
Author
Soon Byung Min (충남대학교) Junho Kim (한국농촌경제연구원) Seo Hong Seok (한국농촌경제연구원)
Journal
한국농업경제학회 농업경제연구 농업경제연구 제62권 제3호 KCI Accredited Journals
Published
2021.9
Pages
37 - 54 (18page)

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Modeling the Korean Crop Market under the Yield Uncertainty Using the Stochastic Approach
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Abstract· Keywords

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This study introduces a stochastic agricultural policy model to generate stochastic projection under uncertainty. To do that, we extract an uncertainty from the residual in the yield functions for rice, wheat, corn, soybean, and barley to consider the uncertainty of climate conditions. A copula function is used to reflect a correlation among variables. We then utilize a Monte Carlo simulation approach to generate 500 random draws representing residuals for the yield of individual crop in the future. We impose random draws into the stochastic model built based on the crop model in KREI-KASMO. Our stochastic projections show the possible range of prices that a deterministic model does not generate. These ranges imply that the possible range of prices under the uncertainty of climate conditions in the Korean crop market. Our study finds that the actual price of rice is out of the projected range, but soybean price is within the range of stochastic price projection. Our study provides the necessity of stochastic agricultural policy model and helps policy makers and market analysts who consider a future market.
#Error extraction #Error simulation #Korean crop market #Stochastic agricultural model

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References (15)

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김태후 / 2017 / 스튜던트 T 코퓰라 모델을 이용한 지역별 쌀생산량의 공간적 종속성 추정 / 농업경제연구 58(3):25~44 dbpia 서홍석 / 2020 / 농업부문 전망모형 KREI-KASMO 2020 운용·개발 연구 dbpia 서홍석 / 2020 / 확률적 농업부문 전망모형 개발을 위한 기초연구 dbpia 유기환 / 2019 / 확률적 균형대체모형을 활용한 농업생산부문 최저임금 인상의 후생효과 추정 / 농업경제연구 60(2):1~21 dbpia 임정빈 / 2004 / 확률적 다기간 동태 최적화 모형을 응용한 쌀 재고 수준의 계측 / 농업경제연구 45(2):111~137 dbpia

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