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논문 기본 정보
- 자료유형
- 학술저널
- 저자정보
- 저널정보
- 한국해운물류학회 The Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics The Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics Vol.37 No.1
- 발행연도
- 2021.1
- 수록면
- 82 - 90 (9page)
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It is widely accepted that the highly volatile capesize market has many peculiarities. Its importance has been recently highlighted by an increase in contribution of the Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) to the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), affecting the progress of the BDI more than any other dry bulk index. This paper investigates the behavior of the capesize market focusing on expectations and time lags. Expectations play a critical role in the freight market both for the short-term and the long-term decision making. In particular, we investigate the relation between time lags and time-charter, trip and spot market rates as well as the average earnings of the capesize vessels of various ages. Time series analysis is used to reach our conclusions. The Hannan – Quinn criterion has been selected to identify the important lags of the capesize freight marketfor the period 1977–2018 and anAutoregressive (AR) model has been constructed to perform the statistical analysis. The findings indicate that there is a strong correlation between time lags and capesize freight market, forecasting indeed the behavior ofthe market. At a practical level, better understanding of the behavior of the capesize market can improve the planning decision of ship-owners and charterers alike.
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참고문헌 (15)
참고문헌 신청
Alexandridis, G. / 2017 / Economic information transmissions and liquidity between shipping markets : New evidence from freight derivatives / Transportation Research Part E 98:82~104
Alizadeh, H. A. / 2013 / Trading volume and volatility in the shipping forward freight market / Transportation Research Part E 49:250~265
Batchelor, R. / 2007 / Forecasting spot and forward prices in the international freight market / International Journal of Forecasting 23:101~114
Okan Duru / 2009 / Judgemental Forecasting in the Dry Bulk Shipping Business: Statistical vs. Judgemental Approach / The Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics 25(2):189~217
Goulielmos, M. A. / 2009 / Forecasting weekly freight rates for oneyear time charter 65 000 dwt bulk carrier, 1989-2008, using nonlinear methods / Maritime Policy & Management 36(5):411~436
Alizadeh, H. A. / 2013 / Trading volume and volatility in the shipping forward freight market / Transportation Research Part E 49:250~265
Batchelor, R. / 2007 / Forecasting spot and forward prices in the international freight market / International Journal of Forecasting 23:101~114
Okan Duru / 2009 / Judgemental Forecasting in the Dry Bulk Shipping Business: Statistical vs. Judgemental Approach / The Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics 25(2):189~217
Goulielmos, M. A. / 2009 / Forecasting weekly freight rates for oneyear time charter 65 000 dwt bulk carrier, 1989-2008, using nonlinear methods / Maritime Policy & Management 36(5):411~436
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