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Watershed models have been increasingly used to support an integrated management of land and water, non-point source pollutants, and implement total daily maximum load policy. However, these models demand a great amount of input data, process parameters, a proper calibration, and sometimes result in significant uncertainty in the simulation results. For this reason, uncertainty analysis is necessary to minimize the risk in the use of the models for an important decision making. The objectives of this study were to evaluate three different uncertainty analysis algorithms (SUFI-2: Sequential Uncertainty Fitting-Ver.2, GLUE: Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation, ParaSol: Parameter Solution) that used to analyze the sensitivity of the SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool) parameters and auto-calibration in a watershed, evaluate the uncertainties on the simulations of runoff and sediment load, and suggest alternatives to reduce the uncertainty. The results confirmed that the parameters which are most sensitive to runoff and sediment simulations were consistent in three algorithms although the order of importance is slightly different. In addition, there was no significant difference in the performance of auto-calibration results for runoff simulations. On the other hand, sediment calibration results showed less modeling efficiency compared to runoff simulations, which is probably due to the lack of measurement data. It is obvious that the parameter uncertainty in the sediment simulation is much grater than that in the runoff simulation. To decrease the uncertainty of SWAT simulations, it is recommended to estimate feasible ranges of model parameters, and obtain sufficient and reliable measurement data for the study site.
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참고문헌 (23)
참고문헌 신청
Abbaspour, K. C. / 2007 / Modelling Hydrology and Water Quality in the Pre-alpine/Alpine Thur Watershed using SWAT / Journal of Hydrology 333:413~430
Abbaspour, K. C. / 2009 / SWAT-CUP User Manual / Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology
Angel, S. / 2005 / The Dynamics of Global Urban Expansion / Department of Transport and Urban Development
Arnold, J. G. / 1992 / Spatial Scale Variability in Model Development and Parameterization
Arnold, J. G. / 1998 / Large Area Hydrologic Modeling and Assessment : Part I : Model Development / Journal of American Water Resources Association 34(1):73~89
Abbaspour, K. C. / 2009 / SWAT-CUP User Manual / Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology
Angel, S. / 2005 / The Dynamics of Global Urban Expansion / Department of Transport and Urban Development
Arnold, J. G. / 1992 / Spatial Scale Variability in Model Development and Parameterization
Arnold, J. G. / 1998 / Large Area Hydrologic Modeling and Assessment : Part I : Model Development / Journal of American Water Resources Association 34(1):73~89
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