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Forecasting methodology of future demand market
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미래 수요시장의 예측 방법론

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Type
Academic journal
Author
Journal
The Korea Society of Digital Policy & Management 디지털융복합연구 디지털융복합연구 제18권 제2호 KCI Accredited Journals
Published
2020.1
Pages
205 - 211 (7page)

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cover
Forecasting methodology of future demand market
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Abstract· Keywords

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The method of predicting the future may be predicted by technical characteristics or technical performance. Therefore, technology prediction is used in the field of strategic research that can produce economic and social benefits. In this study, we predicted the future market through the study of how to predict the future with these technical characteristics. The future prediction method was studied through the prediction of the time when the market occupied according to the demand of special product. For forecasting market demand, we proposed the future forecasting model through comparison of representative quantitative analysis methods such as CAGR model, BASS model, Logistic model and Gompertz Growth Curve. This study combines Rogers' theory of innovation diffusion to predict when products will spread to the market. As a result of the research, we developed a methodology to predict when a particular product will mature in the future market through the spread of various factors for the special product to occupy the market. However, there are limitations in reducing errors in expert judgment to predict the market.
#CAGR model #BASS model #Logistic model #Gomperz growth model #Demand forecast model of future market #Rogers' innovation diffusion theory #Maturity of factors #Forecast method of future demand market

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References (17)

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Ralph C. Lenz / 1985 / A heuristic approach to technology measurement / Technological Forecasting and Social Change 27(2-3):249~264 Crossref E. Jantch. / 1967 / Technological Forecasting in Perspective / OECD Publication google schola J. R. Bright. / 1978 / Practical Technology Forecasting : Concepts and Exercise / Industrial Management Center google schola N. Capon / 1987 / Marketing and Technology : A Strategic Coalignment / Journal of Marketing 51:1~14 google schola F. P. Borr. / 1999 / The Valuation of Technology / John Wiley & Sons. google schola

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