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학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
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This study was conducted to predict future land-cover changes under climate change scenarios and to cluster analysis of regional land-cover characteristics. To simulate the future land-cover according to climate change scenarios - A1B, A2, and B1 of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), Dyna-CLUE (Conversion of Land Use Change and its Effects) was applied for modeling of competition among land-use types in relation with socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors. Gyeonggi-do were selected as study areas. The simulation results from 2010 to 2040 suggested future land-cover changes under the scenario conditions. All scenarios resulted in a gradual decrease in paddy area, while upland area continuously increased. A1B scenario showed the highest increase in built-up area, but all scenarios showed only slight changes in forest area. As a result of cluster analysis with the land-cover component scores, 31 si/gun in Gyeonggi-do were classified into three clusters. This approach is expected to be useful for evaluating and simulating land-use changes in relation to development constraints and scenarios. The results could be used as fundamental basis for providing policy direction by considering regional land-cover characteristics.
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참고문헌 (16)
참고문헌 신청
Alcamo, J / 1996 / Integrated scenarios of global change / Pergamon Press
Brown, D. G. / 2002 / Modeling the relationships between land use land cover on private lands in the Upper Midwest / J Environmental Management 59 (4) : 247 ~ 263
Deal, B / 2004 / Spatial dynamic modeling and urban land use transformation: a simulation approach to assessing the costs of urban sprawl / Ecological Economics 51 (1) : 79 ~
IPCC / 2007 / Climate Change 2007 : The Physical Science Basis / Cambridge University Press
Lambin, E. F / 2000 / Area agricultural land-use models able to predict changes in land-use intensity? Agriculture / Ecosystems and Environment 82 : 321 ~ 331
Brown, D. G. / 2002 / Modeling the relationships between land use land cover on private lands in the Upper Midwest / J Environmental Management 59 (4) : 247 ~ 263
Deal, B / 2004 / Spatial dynamic modeling and urban land use transformation: a simulation approach to assessing the costs of urban sprawl / Ecological Economics 51 (1) : 79 ~
IPCC / 2007 / Climate Change 2007 : The Physical Science Basis / Cambridge University Press
Lambin, E. F / 2000 / Area agricultural land-use models able to predict changes in land-use intensity? Agriculture / Ecosystems and Environment 82 : 321 ~ 331
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