UNCERTAIN PROSPECTS  FOR THE SIX-PARTY TALKS:  NORTH KOREA'S NUCLEAR CRISIS  AND U.S. POLICY

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저널정보: 통일연구원 International Journal of Korean Unification Studies International Journal of Korean Unification Studies 제12권 제2호

발행연도: 2003.1

수록면: 1 - 14 (14page)

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The purpose of this article is to analyze the positions of the U.S. and North Korea on the 6-party talks and the prospect for the U.S.-North Korean relationship. The biggest goal of the U.S. through the 6-party talks is to make it known to the world that the U.S. is not the sole concerned party, but one among other countries concerned with this issue. The reason that the U.S. pursued the 6-party talks despite the North’ strong resistance is that it wanted to prevent the issue from being aggravated due to North Korea’s claim that the nuclear crisis was sparked by the U.S.’ hostile policy, as well as possible future arguments involving the security guarantee and the scrapping of the nuclear program. It appears that North Korea agreed to the proposed 6- party talks, not the bilateral talks that it had asked for, because it needed to escape from the international isolation due to the aggravated situation, like the increased U.S. pressure and its own economic distress. North Korea must have wanted to find out the true intention of the U.S. while maintaining dialogue rather than aggravating its isolation by heightened tensions, and also to show the outside world that it has flexible and active attitude toward dialogue with other countries. Despite the extremely conflicting positions between the U.S. and North Korea, however, the U.S.-North Korean relationship is likely to remain in a state of tension and stagnation rather than to fall into a catastrophic phase. North Korea seems to be interested in the 6-party talks, although it is not fully satisfied with it. But North Korea wants to make the 6-party talks bilateral talks in a real sense. The U.S. effort to pursue a dual strategy of appeasement and pressure is also likely to continue, because of the current situation that the U.S. faces, like the Iraq issue, the economy, and the presidential race. The U.S. also seems to believe that it has some time because North Korea may have technical problems in manufacturing nuclear weapons.

The purpose of this article is to analyze the positions of the U.S. and North Korea on the 6-party talks and the prospect for the U.S.-North Korean relationship. The biggest goal of the U.S. through the 6-party talks is to make it known to the world that the U.S. is not the sole concerned party, but one among other countries concerned with this issue. The reason that the U.S. pursued the 6-party talks despite the North’ strong resistance is that it wanted to prevent the issue from being aggravated due to North Korea’s claim that the nuclear crisis was sparked by the U.S.’ hostile policy, as well as possible future arguments involving the security guarantee and the scrapping of the nuclear program. It appears that North Korea agreed to the proposed 6- party talks, not the bilateral talks that it had asked for, because it needed to escape from the international isolation due to the aggravated situation, like the increased U.S. pressure and its own economic distress. North Korea must have wanted to find out the true intention of the U.S. while maintaining dialogue rather than aggravating its isolation by heightened tensions, and also to show the outside world that it has flexible and active attitude toward dialogue with other countries. Despite the extremely conflicting positions between the U.S. and North Korea, however, the U.S.-North Korean relationship is likely to remain in a state of tension and stagnation rather than to fall into a catastrophic phase. North Korea seems to be interested in the 6-party talks, although it is not fully satisfied with it. But North Korea wants to make the 6-party talks bilateral talks in a real sense. The U.S. effort to pursue a dual strategy of appeasement and pressure is also likely to continue, because of the current situation that the U.S. faces, like the Iraq issue, the economy, and the presidential race. The U.S. also seems to believe that it has some time because North Korea may have technical problems in manufacturing nuclear weapons.

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