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Ultra-Low Fertility in Korea and Social Investment by National Pension Fund - Focusing on Demographic Change, Social Investment, and the National Pension Finance -
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한국의 초저출산과 국민연금 기금의 사회적 투자 : 인구구조 변화, 사회적투자, 연금재정을 중심으로

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Type
Academic journal
Author
Jo, Won-Hee (국민대학교) Kye, Bong-Oh (국민대학교) Ryu, Jae-Rin (고려대학교)
Journal
The Poputation Association of Korea Korea Journal of Population Studies Vol.41 No.2 KCI Accredited Journals
Published
2018.6
Pages
61 - 90 (30page)
DOI
10.31693/KJPS.2018.06.41.2.61

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Ultra-Low Fertility in Korea and Social Investment by National Pension Fund - Focusing on Demographic Change, Social Investment, and the National Pension Finance -
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Abstract· Keywords

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In this study, we consider the social investment by the National Pension Fund to overcome the ultra-low fertility in Korea. We analyze the effect of stabilization of dependency ratio on the public pension due to demographic changes using long-term population projections. We also present some policy suggestions based on our demographic analyses. Finally, we use dynamic micro-simulation model to analyze the impact on the finances of the National Pension Fund when social investment is made. The main findings are as follows. First, considering the improvement in the National Pension dependency ratio, the appropriate social investment is about 15% of the annual revenues of national pension fund if the total fertility rate increases from 1.2 to 1.8 and the discount rate is 6%. Second, if the fertility rate rises due to social investment, the Financial Balances of the National Pension Fund are improved by 0.8~1% of GDP over the long term. These results strongly suggest that it is necessary to actively discuss social investment by the National Pension Fund to the extent that the stability of the National Pension Fund is not impaired.
#인구구조 변화 #국민연금의 사회적 투자 #미시모의실험 모형 #Demographic Change #Social Investment By National Pension Fund #Micro-Simulation Model

Contents

Ⅰ. 서론
Ⅱ. 국민연금기금의 사회적 투자와 출산율 제고
Ⅲ. 적정 사회적 투자 규모 추정
Ⅳ. 사회적 투자의 국민연금 재정 개선 효과 분석
Ⅴ. 결론
참고문헌

References (34)

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고승연 (2014)《저출산의 해법, 유럽에서 배운다》현대경제연구원. 고제이·권혁진 (2014)《인구구조 변화에 따른 조세수입 전망과 사회복지 지출 부담 분석》연구보고서, 서울: 한국보건사회연구원. 고제이·권혁진·신우진·류재린·하솔잎·조남운 (2016)《미시모의실험 기반 중장기 사회 재정 영향 평가 모형 개발 : 노후 소득 보장 정책을 중심으로》한국 보건사회연구원. 국민연금재정추계위원회·보건복지부 (2013)《제3차 국민연금 재정계산 장기재 정전망 결과》 국민연금제도발전위원회 (2013)《국민연금 제도개선방향》

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