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Ultra-Low Fertility in Korea and Social Investment by National Pension Fund - Focusing on Demographic Change, Social Investment, and the National Pension Finance -
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한국의 초저출산과 국민연금 기금의 사회적 투자 : 인구구조 변화, 사회적투자, 연금재정을 중심으로

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Type
Academic journal
Author
Jo, Won-Hee (국민대학교) Kye, Bong-Oh (국민대학교) Ryu, Jae-Rin (고려대학교)
Journal
The Poputation Association of Korea Korea Journal of Population Studies Vol.41 No.2 KCI Accredited Journals
Published
2018.6
Pages
61 - 90 (30page)
DOI
10.31693/KJPS.2018.06.41.2.61

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Ultra-Low Fertility in Korea and Social Investment by National Pension Fund - Focusing on Demographic Change, Social Investment, and the National Pension Finance -
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Abstract· Keywords

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In this study, we consider the social investment by the National Pension Fund to overcome the ultra-low fertility in Korea. We analyze the effect of stabilization of dependency ratio on the public pension due to demographic changes using long-term population projections. We also present some policy suggestions based on our demographic analyses. Finally, we use dynamic micro-simulation model to analyze the impact on the finances of the National Pension Fund when social investment is made. The main findings are as follows. First, considering the improvement in the National Pension dependency ratio, the appropriate social investment is about 15% of the annual revenues of national pension fund if the total fertility rate increases from 1.2 to 1.8 and the discount rate is 6%. Second, if the fertility rate rises due to social investment, the Financial Balances of the National Pension Fund are improved by 0.8~1% of GDP over the long term. These results strongly suggest that it is necessary to actively discuss social investment by the National Pension Fund to the extent that the stability of the National Pension Fund is not impaired.

Contents

Ⅰ. 서론
Ⅱ. 국민연금기금의 사회적 투자와 출산율 제고
Ⅲ. 적정 사회적 투자 규모 추정
Ⅳ. 사회적 투자의 국민연금 재정 개선 효과 분석
Ⅴ. 결론
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UCI(KEPA) : I410-ECN-0101-2018-300-003148816