지원사업
학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
커뮤니티
연구자들이 자신의 연구와 전문성을 널리 알리고, 새로운 협력의 기회를 만들 수 있는 네트워킹 공간이에요.
논문 기본 정보
- 자료유형
- 학술대회자료
- 저자정보
- 발행연도
- 2011.7
- 수록면
- 324 - 329 (6page)
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초록· 키워드
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Expert survey is a useful and effective way to determine risk priority. Especially, when data regarding risks are strictly limited, expert opinions have very significant meanings. The aim of this paper is to suggest a rational method for measuring risk priority. The research is composed of the following steps. First, comprehensive literature reviews were performed to identify the need of expert opinions and stochastic approach. Second, 40 expert surveys were conducted to evaluate the Probability(P) and Impact(I) score of each risk factor by using 5 point Likert scale. Third, the results of expert survey and probability distribution were combined to reflect the volatility of risk by using Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS). The probability distribution of each risk factor was assigned using distribution fitting. Then, the simulation was used to calculate the expected value at a reasonable significance level. For validation, the results of existing method and stochastic method were compared. By using the stochastic method, the authors were able to obtain more detailed and realistic results than the existing method.
목차
ABSTRACT
1. 리스크 우선순위 평가기법
2. 확률분포를 이용한 분석
3. 사례 적용
4. 결론
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UCI(KEPA) : I410-ECN-0101-2013-553-000707030