지원사업
학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
커뮤니티
연구자들이 자신의 연구와 전문성을 널리 알리고, 새로운 협력의 기회를 만들 수 있는 네트워킹 공간이에요.
초록· 키워드
오류제보하기
Preparations for the Russian presidential election of 2008 are in full swing already. The present Russian president Vladimir Putin confirmed that he will not run for president in 2008. He always emphasizes that his main priority is to ensure stability and observe the law. According to the Russian Constitution the president can be elected for not more than two terms in succession. If so, Putin cannot stay on past 2008. But governors and regional legislators are intent on sacrificing the Constitution for the sake of keeping Putin in power.
The main criteria for choosing Putin's successor will be the following. The successor should be a weak figure who doesn't have enough resources to start playing his own game later, and will therefore be very loyal. Putin needs also a person who doesn't have a team of his own, and who is not influenced by any financial groups.
There will be two possible scenarios. The first seems hypothetical, since it could be a catalyst rather than a resolution in a tense situation. This would involve, for example, early parliamentary elections and a change in the political system to emphasize the government. The scenarios generating continual rumors about a party-aligned president, a presidential prime minister, or the need for Putin to stay on as Russia's leading political figure after 2008. And Putin would only agree to some form of third term scenario if there's a drastic change in the political situation - for either better or worse. Putin could face pressure to stay on for a third term, from those who have an interest in that.
The second scenario involves the search for a worthy successor - and rumor has it that such a search is well under way. This scenario could also bring many surprises. In Russia, after all, things often work out that way. Now Dmitry Medvedev and Sergei Ivanov have been given a chance for Putin's successor to take advantage of the improved state financial situation to solve all the problems concerned with carrying out the president's tasks and the reform of the military, and in this way, to earn political points. By promoting Medvedev and Ivanov to top Cabinet posts, Putin is testing them as possible presidential candidates.
In sum. What is President Putin really like? Only Putin himself knows that. The rest of us will find out in 2008.
The main criteria for choosing Putin's successor will be the following. The successor should be a weak figure who doesn't have enough resources to start playing his own game later, and will therefore be very loyal. Putin needs also a person who doesn't have a team of his own, and who is not influenced by any financial groups.
There will be two possible scenarios. The first seems hypothetical, since it could be a catalyst rather than a resolution in a tense situation. This would involve, for example, early parliamentary elections and a change in the political system to emphasize the government. The scenarios generating continual rumors about a party-aligned president, a presidential prime minister, or the need for Putin to stay on as Russia's leading political figure after 2008. And Putin would only agree to some form of third term scenario if there's a drastic change in the political situation - for either better or worse. Putin could face pressure to stay on for a third term, from those who have an interest in that.
The second scenario involves the search for a worthy successor - and rumor has it that such a search is well under way. This scenario could also bring many surprises. In Russia, after all, things often work out that way. Now Dmitry Medvedev and Sergei Ivanov have been given a chance for Putin's successor to take advantage of the improved state financial situation to solve all the problems concerned with carrying out the president's tasks and the reform of the military, and in this way, to earn political points. By promoting Medvedev and Ivanov to top Cabinet posts, Putin is testing them as possible presidential candidates.
In sum. What is President Putin really like? Only Putin himself knows that. The rest of us will find out in 2008.
목차
Ⅰ. 서론
Ⅱ. 2008년 대선 시나리오
Ⅲ. 푸틴의 딜레마
Ⅳ. 2008년 푸틴의 선택과 전망
참고문헌
Abstract
참고문헌 (4)
참고문헌 신청
[학술지(정기간행물)] - / 2005 / 러시아 정치체제 이해와 ‘준대통령제’개념
[학술지(정기간행물)] - / 2005 / 푸틴 정부하 러시아 권력구조 개편과 정당정치,현대러시아 국가체제와 세계전략
[학술지(정기간행물)] - / 2005년12월 / 2007년 두마선거와 러시아 정당,한국국제정치학회 연례학술회의 발표논문
[학술지(정기간행물)] - / 2005 / 'Vladimir Putin's Political Choice: Towards Bureaucratic Authoritarianism,' Alex Pravda, eded, Leading Russia: Putin in Perspective
[학술지(정기간행물)] - / 2005 / 푸틴 정부하 러시아 권력구조 개편과 정당정치,현대러시아 국가체제와 세계전략
[학술지(정기간행물)] - / 2005년12월 / 2007년 두마선거와 러시아 정당,한국국제정치학회 연례학술회의 발표논문
[학술지(정기간행물)] - / 2005 / 'Vladimir Putin's Political Choice: Towards Bureaucratic Authoritarianism,' Alex Pravda, eded, Leading Russia: Putin in Perspective
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