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학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
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논문 기본 정보
- 자료유형
- 학술저널
- 저자정보
- 저널정보
- 한국기상학회 Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Vol.44 No.1
- 발행연도
- 2008.2
- 수록면
- 25 - 35 (11page)
이용수
초록· 키워드
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The quality of the Probability of Precipitation (PoP) forecasts derived from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) medium-range Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) was evaluated in terms of skill measures including reliability, resolution, and the Brier score. JMA EPS consists of 24 perturbed forecasts and one control forecast, where the perturbed initial conditions are generated by the breeding method. In terms of a 1 ㎜ day?¹ and a 48 ㎜ day?¹ precipitation threshold, the 5-day PoP forecasts accumulated for 24 hours at 150 points in Japan were verified for two years, from 1 January 2003 to 31 December 2004. The uncalibrated PoP forecasts were found to produce systematic errors due to the model bias, exhibiting overestimation of a light rainfall event and underestimation of a heavy rainfall event. To correct the biased PoP forecasts, a method of calibration in which the PoP was adjusted using the climatology of the observation and direct model output was introduced. The climatology of the observation was made from rain-gauge data from 1971 to 1996, while the model climatology was derived from the 25 precipitation forecasts produced by the JMA EPS from July 2002 to June 2004. A variety of evaluation measurements such as reliability, resolution, relative operating characteristic, and the Brier score were employed to assess the quality of PoP forecasts after calibration. The skill of the calibrated PoP forecast for the event of the light (heavy) rain which is greater than or equal to 1 (48) ㎜ day?¹ was significantly (slightly) improved. It is found that the slight skill increase of the heavy rain resulted from the rarity of the events screened by a threshold of 48 ㎜ day?¹. A rank histogram was also used to assess the improvement of the ensemble spread of the calibrated EPS. The rank histogram of the uncalibrated EPS illustrated the L- or U-shaped distributions which imply the biased forecast. However, the biased distributions were remarkably improved for whole verification period after calibration. Therefore, it is shown that the calibration method of this study is very efficient to correct the biased forecast.
목차
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Model and data description
3. Results for uncalibrated PoP forecasts
4. Results for calibrated PoP forecasts
5. Summary and conclusion
Acknowledgement
REFERENCES
참고문헌 (23)
참고문헌 신청
1. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Anderson, J. L. / 1996 / A method for producing and evaluatingprobabilistic forecasts from ensemble modelintegrations / J. Climate 9 : 1518 ~ 1530
2. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Atger, F. / 1999 / The skill of ensemble prediction systems / Mon. Wea. Rev 127 : 1941 ~ 1953
3. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Atger, F. / 2003 / Spatial and interannual variability of the reliabilityof ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts: consequencesfor calibration / Mon. Wea. Rev 131 : 1509 ~ 1523
4. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Brier, G. W. / 1950 / Verification of forecasts expressed interms of probability / Mon. Wea. Rev 78 : 1 ~ 3
5. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Eckel, F. A. / 1998 / CalibratedProbabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Basedon the MRF Ensemble / Wea. Forecasting 13 : 1132 ~ 1147
2. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Atger, F. / 1999 / The skill of ensemble prediction systems / Mon. Wea. Rev 127 : 1941 ~ 1953
3. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Atger, F. / 2003 / Spatial and interannual variability of the reliabilityof ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts: consequencesfor calibration / Mon. Wea. Rev 131 : 1509 ~ 1523
4. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Brier, G. W. / 1950 / Verification of forecasts expressed interms of probability / Mon. Wea. Rev 78 : 1 ~ 3
5. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Eckel, F. A. / 1998 / CalibratedProbabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Basedon the MRF Ensemble / Wea. Forecasting 13 : 1132 ~ 1147
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