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This is the study on the verification of the determinants of the budget size. There have been two basic perspectives on this subject : determinants theory and incremental ism theory. So far each has been studied separately according to its own series of arguments and verifications. The latter frequently concludeed that the budget size of the last year is the most important. on the other hand the former would have continued unfinished politcal vs. economoic factor dabate. Two approaches should be incorporated to identify the virtual determinants of the budget size, I assumed, for the following reason. The core actor of budget agency is the bureacrats, at least in Korea, and they have strong tendenacy toward the incremental ism, observing the invisible incremental guide-line. In making annual budget plan they may incrementally. But in long-term perspective they should act within the economical-political capacity. So it's possible to evaluate the incrementalism theory put emphasis on the short-term perspective, on the contrary determinats theory put emphasis on the long-term perspective. In the real world both have influence on the the budget size and I built the 4 Pooled Models, incorporating the both theories.
This article contains three main empirical verifications: ① verifications of the Incremental ism Model, ② verification of the determinants Model, ③ verification of the Pooled Model. Operationally dependent variable, 'welfare budget', was defined as the social security budget and was reestimated in terms of 1985 price. Furthermore dependent variable has two indices ; one is the absolute budget quantity, the other is the ratio of social security budget to the whole budget quantity.
1. Incremental ism Model proved that incrementalism worked in welfare budget. And this model showed high explanatory power. Incrementalism is more dominant in absolute budget quantity rather than in ratio of budget.
2. Determinants Model
In finding out the determinants of welfare budget I built Path Model, in which many probable variables are combined, and form cause-budget output relationship. Budget, dependent variable was represented as two kinds ; one the absolute quantity, the other ratio of welfare budget to total budget.
For statistical estimation of Determinants Model the 'effect coefficient', as was suggested by Lewis-Beck, was used as the main criteria of evaluation. According to this criteria it was proved that GNP was the most important cause to absolute budget quantity, whereas Roh, dummy variable representing political regime of president Roh Tae-woo(1988-1992),was the most important to the ratio of welfare budget to total budget. This means political vs. environmental determinants arguement are attributed partly to its methodology of analysis. The , effect coefficient' method is the good to identify the what really caused ,directly and/or indirectly, welfare budget. One significant outcome is 'Key Hypothesis',does not seem to be supported at least in Korea during 1963-92.
3. With the Pooled Models I analyzed the determinants of the welfare budget, resulting to follwing findings. Pooled Model proved that incrementalism is the most important factor of Korea welfare budget during 1963-1991. Even the GNP which determinants theory would concluded as the most influential variable could not equal the incrementalism in deciding welfare budget. This implies the incremental ism theory might be more justifiable than determinants theory in explaining what caused Korea welfare budget output.
By the way the incrementalism theory has stonger causal effect on the welfare budget quantity than on relative ratio of welfare budget, even though it has important causal effect on both kind of welfare budget index. This means incrementalism has played more significant role in deciding the absolute size of welfare budget than in deciding the distribution of budget.
If not by the pooled model, the conclusion as to what is the real factor of the welfare budget would be confused. This might be one of the main reason why for so long time political-economic determinants arguement continued since V. O. Key Jr. Recognizing both incrementalism and determinants theory, each of them partly seems to have influence on welfare budget, I think only the pooled model identify the actual determinants of welfare budget in the real world. And the incrementalism, the internal and short term motive of budget bureau is far more important than external and long term determinants of budget. I am not sure this feature will also have general relevancy toward the budgets other than welfare budget. It's problem of verification not that of argument, and we need more study with more data. 〈The End〉.
This article contains three main empirical verifications: ① verifications of the Incremental ism Model, ② verification of the determinants Model, ③ verification of the Pooled Model. Operationally dependent variable, 'welfare budget', was defined as the social security budget and was reestimated in terms of 1985 price. Furthermore dependent variable has two indices ; one is the absolute budget quantity, the other is the ratio of social security budget to the whole budget quantity.
1. Incremental ism Model proved that incrementalism worked in welfare budget. And this model showed high explanatory power. Incrementalism is more dominant in absolute budget quantity rather than in ratio of budget.
2. Determinants Model
In finding out the determinants of welfare budget I built Path Model, in which many probable variables are combined, and form cause-budget output relationship. Budget, dependent variable was represented as two kinds ; one the absolute quantity, the other ratio of welfare budget to total budget.
For statistical estimation of Determinants Model the 'effect coefficient', as was suggested by Lewis-Beck, was used as the main criteria of evaluation. According to this criteria it was proved that GNP was the most important cause to absolute budget quantity, whereas Roh, dummy variable representing political regime of president Roh Tae-woo(1988-1992),was the most important to the ratio of welfare budget to total budget. This means political vs. environmental determinants arguement are attributed partly to its methodology of analysis. The , effect coefficient' method is the good to identify the what really caused ,directly and/or indirectly, welfare budget. One significant outcome is 'Key Hypothesis',does not seem to be supported at least in Korea during 1963-92.
3. With the Pooled Models I analyzed the determinants of the welfare budget, resulting to follwing findings. Pooled Model proved that incrementalism is the most important factor of Korea welfare budget during 1963-1991. Even the GNP which determinants theory would concluded as the most influential variable could not equal the incrementalism in deciding welfare budget. This implies the incremental ism theory might be more justifiable than determinants theory in explaining what caused Korea welfare budget output.
By the way the incrementalism theory has stonger causal effect on the welfare budget quantity than on relative ratio of welfare budget, even though it has important causal effect on both kind of welfare budget index. This means incrementalism has played more significant role in deciding the absolute size of welfare budget than in deciding the distribution of budget.
If not by the pooled model, the conclusion as to what is the real factor of the welfare budget would be confused. This might be one of the main reason why for so long time political-economic determinants arguement continued since V. O. Key Jr. Recognizing both incrementalism and determinants theory, each of them partly seems to have influence on welfare budget, I think only the pooled model identify the actual determinants of welfare budget in the real world. And the incrementalism, the internal and short term motive of budget bureau is far more important than external and long term determinants of budget. I am not sure this feature will also have general relevancy toward the budgets other than welfare budget. It's problem of verification not that of argument, and we need more study with more data. 〈The End〉.
목차
Ⅰ. 序論
Ⅱ. 政府豫算規模의 決定理論
Ⅲ. 經驗的 檢證
Ⅳ. 方法論의 擴張
Ⅴ. 結論
〈부록-1〉 복지예산결정의 因果模型
參考文獻
〈Abstracts〉
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