With the "three rural issues" in china''s continue to rise to the height of the national strategy, all walks of life have begun to offer solutions to this problem. Among them, analyzing the degree of aging of the agricultural population and its impact on the agricultural economy is one of the important subjects in agronomy, demography, and labor economics. In previous research, scholars have studied the aging of the agricultural population and agricultural economy, and some of the research objects are limited to a certain city or a short period of time, which cause the research results controversial. Therefore, the objective of this thesis is to explore the relationship between the two in detail on a larger scale and to provide ideas for solving the problems left by agricultural powers, advancing the process of agricultural modernization, and promoting the coordinated and harmonious development of the national economy.
This thesis analyzes the global population aging situation and the basic conditions and development trends of rural aging in China. First, studied the situation of population aging from a global perspective, by the United Nations population forecast data studies the difference in population and age composition between developed and developing countries. Second, based on the analysis of factors such as birth level, life expectancy, population migration, etc. China’s population change and economic and social development changes show "anti-regularity" and "disconnection". The aging problem is unique and serious, especially in rural areas. Third, focus on the time dimension, and the compared to urban and rural areas to provide a population data basis for the huge social welfare needs of rural areas. According to the data in the "National Population Aging Response Strategy Report", research shows that the serious reversal of urban and rural population aging is a typical feature of China''s aging. At present, the size of the rural aging population is 1.69 times that of the urban population, the rural aging degree is 2.3 times that of the urban population, and the dependency ratio of the aged population is 2.8 times that of the rural population. The rate of aging in rural areas is faster than that in urban areas, 20 years earlier than in cities, and rural areas have entered a period of severe aging in 2028. In the future, the aging of rural areas will experience rapid development from 2011 to 2020, rapid growth from 2021 to 2034, and continued high level operation from 2035 to 2060. Fourth, according to the perspective of economic support for aging, studies have found that family planning and the transfer of rural working-age populations have broken the law of population distribution, resulting in lagging of economic development and social undertakings in rural areas Aging shows obvious regional imbalances and population movements have deepened this imbalance. These problems manifest in the fact that the elderly in rural areas, mainly rely on family members and self-support. The annual income of 80% of the rural elderly is only enough for food expenditure. Approximately one-third of rural elderly have no spouse. The proportion of female elderly widowed is nearly 40%. The size of family households is shrinking day by day, and the size of the elderly living alone, and disabled is huge, and the aging reaches 60%, which has a great impact on the rural labor force.
This thesis collects data from 2000 to 2018 including “China Statistical Yearbook”, “China Agriculture Yearbook”, “China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook”, agricultural census data, and statistical yearbooks of various provinces and cities. Take the proportion of the rural population aged 60 and over in the total rural working-age population (≥aged 15) as the main explanatory variable (aging of the rural population), and take the rural fixed asset input, the number of the agricultural labor force, the area of crops and the urbanization rate as the control variables, and construct an expanded logarithm as the production function, includes the aging rate, human capital, physical capital, technological level, and other factors, and use a regression model to test the impact of China''s rural aging on agricultural productivity.
These results indicate:
1. Rural aging affects the relation between agricultural production and the national economy. The rural aging population possesses negative or positive effects on labor input, labor productivity, management and organization capable of family, elderly crowding out effect and upgrading of an industrial structure.
2. According to the Solow growth model, we established a model related to the impact of the Chinese rural aging population on agricultural productivity, in addition, we quantitatively measure the characteristics of the Chinese agricultural output and analyze the impact of related factors since 2000. The results demonstrate that the average increased value of the Chinese agricultural production index in each year was 17.89%, the contribution rate of agricultural technology growth was 62.45%, the contribution rate of agricultural labor input was 3.89% and the contribution rate of capital accumulation was 28.32% from 2000 to 2018. In the unaltered condition of negative growth of the rural population and the urbanization rate, from 2011 to 2034, the labor input index would decrease by 0.97% yearly. In the case of unaltered conditions, expected to be around 2035, the index of Chinese agricultural production would achieve zero growth and then enter a negative growth.
3. Based on quantitative analysis and calculation, although the Chinese economy has obtained considerable development, in numerous regions, the development of agricultural production technology is not significant. Moreover, in the process of industrialization and urbanization, agricultural land has been more reduced. Although the government realized the problem and applied the countermeasures, the circumstance might not be changed within the short term. Therefore, solutions must be sought in order to secure agricultural labor and increase capital investment in agriculture. Despite we analyzed the effects of labor input, land input and capital input on agricultural productivity, there are limitations in the sophisticated analysis due to the limitations of the material and the simplification of the model for the study. In particular, the variables of agricultural technology involve agricultural, forestry and pastoral output, thus it might generate convenience problems due to endogeneity. But there are insufficient official materials in China, we analyzed the variables in a simplistic manner, regardless of those limitations. The replacement of the popularizing rate of agricultural machinery for the labor has a critical effect on agricultural production, but it is also an unresolved bottleneck related to reliable data collection. Once the endogeneity between different variables is excluded in the future, after ensuring accurately distinct data from different regions and perform the next study, a sophisticated analysis can be conducted and flexibly used.
The results of the present research and analysis display the effects of the rural aging population on agricultural productivity have different performance caused by labor input, land input, and capital input. It may provide empirical evidence for our present study to further propose that we should also concern the impact of rural capital and technical input while coordinating urban and rural development.