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전 세계적으로 지구온난화에 따른 기후변화로 인하여 가뭄의 빈도 및 가뭄피해가 증가하고 있으며, 우리나라도 가뭄피해로부터 안전할 수 없다. 최근 가뭄피해를 최소화하기 위해서 여러 정부기관 및 연구기관에서 가뭄 관련한 다양한 연구가 진행되고 있으나, 기상학적 또는 수문학적 가뭄분석 등 개별 가뭄정의에 따른 가뭄 평가만 수행하는 실정이다.
본 연구에서는 실질적인 가뭄을 평가하고자 기후변화 시나리오별 극한가뭄을 나타내는 IPSL-CM5A-LR, 보통가뭄을 나타내는 HadGEM2-AO, 습윤한 상태를 나타내는 CanESM2의 강우량 자료를 통해 SPI(6)을 산출하여 위해한 인자인 가뭄발생빈도(Dry Spell), 평균가뭄심도(Average Drought Severity), 확률가뭄심도(Probability Drought Severity)를 산정하였다. 또한 사회·경제적 인자인 인구밀도 (Population Density), 농경지면적(Agricultural Area), 생활용수 수요량(Living
Water Supply), 공업용수 수요량(Industrial Water Supply), 농업용수 수요량(Agricultural Water Supply)을 활용하여 취약성 인자를 산정하였다. 각각 산정된 인자의 가중치를 AHP 기법을 통해 적용하고 가뭄 위해성 및 가뭄 취약성 지
수를 산출하였으며, 두 지수를 결합한 가뭄 위험도 지수를 도출하였다.
가뭄 위해성 지수(Drought Hazard Index, DHI)를 평가한 결과, 극한 가뭄을 나타내는 IPSL-CM5A-LR의 경우 RCP 4.5와 8.5 시나리오에서 과거 대비 가뭄이 심해지는 것을 나타내고, 보통가뭄과 습윤 상태를 나타내는 GCM의 경우 상대적으로 과거에 비해 완화되는 것으로 나타났으며, 가뭄 취약성 인자의 경우 과거기간과 유사한 형태를 나타내고 있다.
위험도 개념을 정량적으로 구현하기 위해, 가뭄 위해성 지수(Drought Hazard Index, DHI)와 가뭄 취약성 지수(Drought Vulnerability Index, DVI)를 조합하여가뭄 위험도 지수(Drought Risk Index)를 산정한 결과, RCP 4.5에서 IPSL-CM5A-LR의 S1 기간을 제외한 나머지 기간과 GCM 모델에서는 과거에비해 가뭄 위험도 증가가 미비한 것으로 나타났다.
미래의 가뭄 위험도를 정량적으로 평가하기 위하여 미래 기간(S1, S2, S3)의 가뭄 위험도를 과거 기간(S0)의 가뭄 위험도로 나누어 증감량을 분석한 결과, HadGEM2-AO과 CanESM2의 경우 S1의 낙동강 하류를 제외하고는 과거에 비해 위험도가 낮아지고 IPSL-CM5A-LR의 경우 다른 두 모델에 비해 가뭄에 대한 위험도가 상대적으로 크게 나타난 것을 확인할 수 있었으며, 가뭄 발생 시 가뭄에 가장 위험한 지역은 2302(수영강) 및 2012(금호강)으로 나타났다.
본 연구에서는 기후변화 시나리오 기반의 기상학적 가뭄을 나타내는 위해성과 가뭄 발생 시 사회·경제학적으로 취약한 정도를 나타내는 취약성을 고려하여 제시한 결과를 바탕으로 가뭄에 가장 위험한 지역을 선별하고 평가하는데 있어 기초 자료로 활용될 것으로 판단된다.
본 연구에서는 실질적인 가뭄을 평가하고자 기후변화 시나리오별 극한가뭄을 나타내는 IPSL-CM5A-LR, 보통가뭄을 나타내는 HadGEM2-AO, 습윤한 상태를 나타내는 CanESM2의 강우량 자료를 통해 SPI(6)을 산출하여 위해한 인자인 가뭄발생빈도(Dry Spell), 평균가뭄심도(Average Drought Severity), 확률가뭄심도(Probability Drought Severity)를 산정하였다. 또한 사회·경제적 인자인 인구밀도 (Population Density), 농경지면적(Agricultural Area), 생활용수 수요량(Living
Water Supply), 공업용수 수요량(Industrial Water Supply), 농업용수 수요량(Agricultural Water Supply)을 활용하여 취약성 인자를 산정하였다. 각각 산정된 인자의 가중치를 AHP 기법을 통해 적용하고 가뭄 위해성 및 가뭄 취약성 지
수를 산출하였으며, 두 지수를 결합한 가뭄 위험도 지수를 도출하였다.
가뭄 위해성 지수(Drought Hazard Index, DHI)를 평가한 결과, 극한 가뭄을 나타내는 IPSL-CM5A-LR의 경우 RCP 4.5와 8.5 시나리오에서 과거 대비 가뭄이 심해지는 것을 나타내고, 보통가뭄과 습윤 상태를 나타내는 GCM의 경우 상대적으로 과거에 비해 완화되는 것으로 나타났으며, 가뭄 취약성 인자의 경우 과거기간과 유사한 형태를 나타내고 있다.
위험도 개념을 정량적으로 구현하기 위해, 가뭄 위해성 지수(Drought Hazard Index, DHI)와 가뭄 취약성 지수(Drought Vulnerability Index, DVI)를 조합하여가뭄 위험도 지수(Drought Risk Index)를 산정한 결과, RCP 4.5에서 IPSL-CM5A-LR의 S1 기간을 제외한 나머지 기간과 GCM 모델에서는 과거에비해 가뭄 위험도 증가가 미비한 것으로 나타났다.
미래의 가뭄 위험도를 정량적으로 평가하기 위하여 미래 기간(S1, S2, S3)의 가뭄 위험도를 과거 기간(S0)의 가뭄 위험도로 나누어 증감량을 분석한 결과, HadGEM2-AO과 CanESM2의 경우 S1의 낙동강 하류를 제외하고는 과거에 비해 위험도가 낮아지고 IPSL-CM5A-LR의 경우 다른 두 모델에 비해 가뭄에 대한 위험도가 상대적으로 크게 나타난 것을 확인할 수 있었으며, 가뭄 발생 시 가뭄에 가장 위험한 지역은 2302(수영강) 및 2012(금호강)으로 나타났다.
본 연구에서는 기후변화 시나리오 기반의 기상학적 가뭄을 나타내는 위해성과 가뭄 발생 시 사회·경제학적으로 취약한 정도를 나타내는 취약성을 고려하여 제시한 결과를 바탕으로 가뭄에 가장 위험한 지역을 선별하고 평가하는데 있어 기초 자료로 활용될 것으로 판단된다.
목차
목 차제 1 장 서론 ·····························································································································11.1 연구배경 ·························································································································11.2 연구동향 ·························································································································21.3 연구내용 및 범위 ·········································································································4제 2 장 이론적 배경 ··············································································································62.1 가뭄의 정의 및 종류 ································································································62.2 기후변화 ························································································································82.2.1 기후변화 시나리오······························································································82.2.2 CMIP5 GCMs 평가 ··························································································102.3 가뭄 위험도의 정의··································································································11제 3 장 가뭄 위험도 평가 ··································································································143.1 가뭄 위험도 평가 기법 ····························································································143.1.1 베이지안 네트워크····························································································143.1.2 주성분 분석········································································································143.1.3 AHP기법 ··············································································································153.2 가뭄 위해성 지수(Drought Hazard Index) ·························································183.2.1 가뭄 위해성 지수 산정을 위한 위해성 인자 선정····································183.2.2 낙동강 유역별 가뭄 위해성 지수 산정························································193.3 가뭄 취약성 지수(Drought Vulne rability Index) ············································213.3.1 가뭄 취약성 지수 산정을 위한 취약 인자 선정 ········································213.3.2 낙동강 유역별 가뭄 취약성 지수 산정························································243.4 가뭄 위험도 지수(Drought Risk Index) ······························································25제 4 장 기후변화 시나리오별 가뭄 위험도 평가 ························································264.1 가뭄 위험도 평가 ······································································································264.1.1 과거 및 미래 가뭄 위해성 지표 분석(1976년 ~ 2099년) ·························264.1.2 과거 및 미래 가뭄 취약성 지표 분석(1974 ~ 2099년) ·····························444.1.3 과거 및 미래 가뭄 위험도 분석(1974 ~ 2099년) ·······································484.2 과거 및 미래구간 결과 비교·분석·········································································62제 5 장 결 론 ·························································································································68참 고 문 헌 ···························································································································70요 지 ·································································································································73ABSTRACT ·························································································································75감사의 글 ·······························································································································77
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