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본 논문은 한반도전구 탄도탄방어에 대한 연구이다. 북한은 현재 다양한 종류의 탄도미사일을 1000여기이상 보유하고 있고, 탄도탄 특성과 사거리를 고려해 볼 때 한반도에 직접적인 위협이 되는 탄도탄은 KN-02, SCUD, 노동으로 판단된다. 우리의 지정학적 환경에 적합한 “한반도 전구내 핵탄도탄 방어체계”를 조기에 구축하기 위해서는 우선 운영 개념을 재정립하여 국가전략자산과 주요군사시설 등 핵심방호자산에 대해서는 국지방어를 하고 수도서울을 비롯한 인구밀집지 중심의 주요도시 방어는 지역방어로 전환해야 한다. 따라서 지금까지의 종말단계 저고도 하층방어 개념을 변경하여 하층방어와 상층방어를 동시에 구축한다. 한반도의 시공간 상황과 지리적인 여건에 부합되도록 “중층방어개념”을 설정하여 명실상부한 다층방어 개념으로 정책을 재정립한 후 이에 적합한 전력을 보유해야 한다. 이를 위해서는 징후감시와 조기경보능력을 갖추어야 하며, 일원화된 작전통제체제와 요격수단을 적정 확보 하여야 한다. 우리의 탄도탄 방어능력 최적화를 검증하기 위한 도구로 지역담당(set covering) 모델을 활용하여 모의 분석한 결과, 하층방어 전력이 부족하므로 전력보강을 위해 00무기체계급을 조기에 추가 양산 배치하여야 한다. 하층방어능력은 고도 40km까지 방호가 가능한 xx급 능력을 갖추어야 한다. 중층방어 체계인 L-SAM의 방어능력도 가능한 대기권내의 최고고도인 90km까지 요격능력을 갖추도록 집중적으로 연구 개발하여 조기에 배치한다. 상층방어체계는 THAAD급 이상의 능력을 가진 무기체계로 전력화해야 한다. 한반도 전구 핵탄도탄 방어(KTBMD)?체계구축을 위한 전략목표는 먼저, 인구 밀집지역인 서울과 주요도시에 대한 탄도미사일 방어능력을 우선 구비한다. 중층방어개념 설정 하에 최소 2회 이상 요격이 보장이 되어야 하며, 징후감시수단 및 탐지자산을 최적화하여 배치 운영한다. 또한 탄도탄 작전통제체계를 일원화하고, 최소한 중층방어용 4개 포대와 상층방어용 2개 포대를 조기에 전력화하여 운영한다. 결론적으로 상층 및 중.하층의 다층.복합 방공망을 조기에 구축하여야 한다. KTBMD는 현 정부가 국방개혁 차원에서 핵심 전략 과제로 최우선적으로 선정하여 국방안보 정책으로 추진 하였으면 한다.
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논문 요약 ···························································································· i제목 차례 ······················································································ ···ⅲ그림 차례 ······················································································ ·····v표 차례 ·····························································································vii약어 목록 ···················································································· ·····ⅷ제1장 서 론 ······································································· 1제1절 연구 배경 및 목적 ·························································· 1제2절 연구 범위 및 방법 ·························································· 4제2장 탄도탄 방어(MD) 개념과 이론 ························· 9제1절 탄도탄 방어(MD) 기본 개념 ······································· 9제2절 한국형 탄도탄 방어(KAMD) 개념 ························ 20제3절 기존연구 검토 ································································ 31제3장 선진국 탄도탄 방어체계 구축사례 ················ 36제1절 미국 ··················································································· 36제2절 이스라엘 ··········································································· 40제3절 일본 ··················································································· 41제4장 북한 핵탄도탄 전략 전술 ································· 45제1절 핵무기 능력 분석 ·························································· 45제2절 탄도탄(BMD) 능력 ····················································· 52제3절 전략/전술 분석 및 평가 ·············································· 64제5장 한국형 탄도탄방어(KAMD) 능력 분석 ······ 75제1절 북한 핵탄도탄 대응개념 ·············································· 75제2절 전구탄도탄 작전 운영 ·················································· 78제3절 탄도탄 방어 전력화 계획 분석 ································· 88제4절 탄도탄 방어능력 모형실험 분석 및 평가 ·············· 94제6장 한반도 전구 핵탄도탄 방어(KTBMD)구축방안 ······························································· 104제1절 NCW에 기초한 전력체계 구축전략 ······················ 104제2절 핵탄도탄 방어 전략 및 정책제언 ··························· 122제7장 결 론 ································································· 140참 고 문 헌 ····································································· 143Abstract ·········································································· 150부 록 ············································································· 152
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