Abstract

Predicting the changes of Yearly Productive Area Distribution for pinus species in Korea Based on
Climate Changes Scenarios


by Ko, Sung Yoon

Department of Forest Resources
Graduate School, Kookmin University, Seoul, Korea


As the climate change proceeds, several studies to predict future changes of the forest productivity and ecosystem have been conducted from all around the world. This study developed new site index equations for some selected Korean pine species under changing climate scenarios. The developed site index equations predicted yearly distribution of productive areas for selected Korean pine species (Pinus densiflora for. erecta, Pinus densiflora, Pinus rigida, Pinus thunbergii). This allows us to map the distribution of productive areas of the Korean pine species in Korean peninsula.
To develop accurate site index equations reflecting both growing environments and site requirements of tree stocks throughout the nation, the study divided the ecosphere ranges into the following five eco-provinces: Mountainous, Southeastern hilly, Southwestern hilly, Central hilly, and Coastal. Then, a total of 48 factors of topography, soil and climate is acquired from overlapping Forest Site Digital Map and Digital Climate Models. Based on the topographical, soil and climate factors, final site index equations were developed through fit data and verified using test data.
Two climate change scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, are used to predict climate factors. The climate factors under RCP 4.5 and RCp 8.5 were applied to the developed site index equations and 2the distribution of productive areas for Korean pinus species were predicted from 2020 to 2100 years in 10-year intervals.
The results from this study show that the distribution of productive areas for each Korean pinus species generally decreases as time passes. In the case of Pinus rigida, the distribution is decreased at a slower rate than other Korean Pinus species suggesting its ecological characteristics to grow up even in extreme conditions. The distribution of Korean Pinus species is different under two climate change scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The RCP 8.5 which is more extreme climate scenario showed much more decreased distribution of productive areas than the RCP 4.5. Besides the climate factors, the new site index equations included topographical and soil factors by eco-provinces and tree species. It is hard to expect that topographical and soil factors would be dramatic changes in a short period of time, but it appears that these factors can be changed over the year 2100. Though this study is conducted mainly focused on the climate factors, there are more various factors that influence on the forest productivity, which requires more follow-up studies.
Despite such a limitation, it is expected that the study result on the amount and distribution of productive areas for some Korean pine species, utilizing scenario RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, could provide valuable information to the management and policies for the forests with Korean pine species.