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자료유형
학술저널
저자정보
최순군 (국립농업과학원) 김민경 (농촌진흥청농업과학기술원) 정재학 (Texas A&M University) 최동호 (국립농업과학원 기후변화생태과) 허승오 (농촌진흥청농업과학기술원)
저널정보
한국농공학회 한국농공학회논문집 한국농공학회논문집 제59권 제4호
발행연도
2017.7
수록면
27 - 42 (16page)
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2017.59.4.027

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The global rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration and its associated climate change have significant effects on agricultural productivity and hydrological cycle. For food security and agricultural water resources planning, it is critical to investigate the impact of climate change on changes in agricultural productivity and water consumption. APEX-Paddy model, which is the modified version of APEX (Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender) model for paddy ecosystem, was used to evaluate rice productivity and evapotranspiration based on climate change scenario. Two study areas (Gimjae, Icheon) were selected and the input dataset was obtained from the literature. RCP (Representitive Concentration Pathways) based climate change scenarios were provided by KMA (Korean Meteorological Administration). Rice yield data from 1997 to 2015 were used to validate APEX-Paddy model. The effects of climate change were evaluated at a 30-year interval, such as the 1990s (historical, 1976~2005), the 2025s (2011~2040), the 2055s (2041~2070), and the 2085s (2071~2100). Climate change scenarios showed that the overall evapotranspiration in the 2085s reduced from 10.5 % to 16.3 %. The evaporations were reduced from 15.6 % to 21.7 % due to shortend growth period, the transpirations were reduced from 0.0% to 24.2 % due to increased CO2 concentration and shortend growth period. In case of rice yield, in the 2085s were reduced from 6.0% to 25.0 % compared with the ones in the 1990s. The findings of this study would play a significant role as the basics for evaluating the vulnerability of paddy rice productivity and water management plan against climate change.

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