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논문 기본 정보
- 자료유형
- 학술저널
- 저자정보
- 발행연도
- 2022.3
- 수록면
- 948 - 958 (11page)
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초록· 키워드
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Since reliability and security of man-machine system increasingly depend on reliability of human, humanreliability analysis (HRA) has attracted a lot of attention in many fields especially in nuclear engineering.
Dependence assessment among human tasks is a important part in HRA which contributes to anappropriate evaluation result. Most of methods in HRA are based on experts’ opinions which are subjectiveand uncertain. Also, the dependence influencing factors are usually considered to be constant,which is unrealistic. In this paper, a new model based on DempstereShafer evidence theory (DSET) andfuzzy number is proposed to handle the dependence between two tasks in HRA under uncertain anddynamic situations. First, the dependence influencing factors are identified and the judgments on thefactors are represented as basic belief assignments (BBAs). Second, the BBAs of the factors that varyingwith time are reconstructed based on the correction BBA derived from time value. Then, BBAs of allfactors are combined to gain the fused BBA. Finally, conditional human error probability (CHEP) isderived based on the fused BBA. The proposed method can deal with uncertainties in the judgments anddynamics of the dependence influencing factors. A case study is illustrated to show the effectiveness andthe flexibility of the proposed method.
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