지원사업
학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
커뮤니티
연구자들이 자신의 연구와 전문성을 널리 알리고, 새로운 협력의 기회를 만들 수 있는 네트워킹 공간이에요.
초록· 키워드
오류제보하기
The aim of this paper is to compare the forecasting performance of the structural model of outbound tourists with that of the random walk model. The RMSE indicates that the random walk model outperforms the short-run structural model in all forecasting steps for all countries concerned. The mean errors for short-run structural models are large in magnitude relative to the MAE’s. This fact indicates a systematic bias in short-run forecasting. We found a long-run relationship for the tourism model. This finding of the cointegrating vector indicates that the structural model can be interpreted as having long-run validity. We, hence, proceeded by estimating the error-correction model and compared the forecasting performance of the model. The results of the long-run forecasts were markedly different from those of the short-run model. The error-correction models outperformed the random walk at all steps for the three criteria and seven countries. The results of the study suggest that while the structural tourism models provide poorer performance than the random walk for short-run forecasting, they outperform the random walk model in the long-run forecasting.핵심용어(Key words):예측, 관광수요, 예측오류
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