지원사업
학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
커뮤니티
연구자들이 자신의 연구와 전문성을 널리 알리고, 새로운 협력의 기회를 만들 수 있는 네트워킹 공간이에요.
초록· 키워드
오류제보하기
This study evaluates the predictability of the number of days of heat and cold damages by growth stages of rice in South Korea using the hindcast data (1986~2020) produced by Pusan National University Coupled General Circulation Model-Weather Research and Forecasting (PNU CGCM-WRF) model chain. The predictability is accessed in terms of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Normalized Standardized Deviations (NSD), Hit Rate (HR) and Heidke Skill Score (HSS). For the purpose, the model predictability to produce the daily maximum and minimum temperatures, which are the variables used to define heat and cold damages for rice, are evaluated first. The result shows that most of the predictions starting the initial conditions from January to May (01RUN to 05RUN) have reasonable predictability, although it varies to some extent depending on the month at which integration starts. In particular, the ensemble average of 01RUN to 05RUN with equal weighting (ENS) has more reasonable predictability (RMSE is in the range of 1.2~2.6℃ and NSD is about 1.0) than individual RUNs. Accordingly, the regional patterns and characteristics of the predicted damages for rice due to excessive high- and low-temperatures are well captured by the model chain when compared with observation, particularly in regions where the damages occur frequently, in spite that hindcasted data somewhat overestimate the damages in terms of number of occurrence days. In ENS, the HR and HSS for heat (cold) damages in rice is in the ranges of 0.44~0.84 and 0.05~0.13 (0.58~0.81 and 0.01~0.10) by growth stage. Overall, it is concluded that the PNU CGCM-WRF chain of 01RUN~05RUN and ENS has reasonable capability to predict the heat and cold damages for rice in South Korea.
목차
Abstract
1. 서론
2. 자료 및 방법
3. 결과
4. 요약 및 결론
REFERENCES
참고문헌 (46)
참고문헌 신청
Ahn, J. -B. / 2001 / Numerical study on the role of sea-ice using ocean general circulation model / J. Korean Soc. Oceanogr 6:225~233
안중배 / 2015 / 접합대순환모형의 초기조건 생산방법에 따른 북반구 겨울철 기온과 해수면 온도의 계절 예측성 비교 연구 / 대기 25(2):353~366
안중배 / 2012 / PNU CGCM V1.1을 이용한 12개월 앙상블 예측 시스템의 개발 / 대기 22(4):455~464
안중배 / 2016 / Changes of Precipitation Extremes over South Korea Projected by the 5 RCMs under RCP Scenarios / Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 52(2):223~236
안중배 / 2018 / PNU CGCM 앙상블 예보 시스템의 겨울철 남한 기온 예측 성능 평가 / 대기 28(4):509~520
안중배 / 2015 / 접합대순환모형의 초기조건 생산방법에 따른 북반구 겨울철 기온과 해수면 온도의 계절 예측성 비교 연구 / 대기 25(2):353~366
안중배 / 2012 / PNU CGCM V1.1을 이용한 12개월 앙상블 예측 시스템의 개발 / 대기 22(4):455~464
안중배 / 2016 / Changes of Precipitation Extremes over South Korea Projected by the 5 RCMs under RCP Scenarios / Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 52(2):223~236
안중배 / 2018 / PNU CGCM 앙상블 예보 시스템의 겨울철 남한 기온 예측 성능 평가 / 대기 28(4):509~520
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UCI(KEPA) : I410-ECN-0101-2022-453-000134704