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백이선 (삼성서울병원) 이정원 (삼성서울병원) 박정열 (울산대학교) 김주현 (분당서울대학교병원) 김미정 (겐트대학교 글로벌캠퍼스 Biotech Data Science Research Center) 김태중 (삼성서울병원) 최철훈 (삼성서울병원) 김병기 (성균관대학교) 배덕수 (삼성서울병원) 서성욱 (삼성서울병원)
저널정보
대한부인종양학회 Journal of Gynecologic Oncology Journal of Gynecologic Oncology Vol.30 No.4
발행연도
2019.1
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1 - 13 (13page)

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Objectives: The aim of this study was to develop a new prognostic classification for epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) patients using gradient boosting (GB) and to compare the accuracy of the prognostic model with the conventional statistical method. Methods: Information of EOC patients from Samsung Medical Center (training cohort, n=1,128) was analyzed to optimize the prognostic model using GB. The performance of the final model was externally validated with patient information from Asan Medical Center (validation cohort, n=229). The area under the curve (AUC) by the GB model was compared to that of the conventional Cox proportional hazard regression analysis (CoxPHR) model. Results: In the training cohort, the AUC of the GB model for predicting second year overall survival (OS), with the highest target value, was 0.830 (95% confidence interval [CI]=0.802–0.853). In the validation cohort, the GB model also showed high AUC of 0.843 (95% CI=0.833–0.853). In comparison, the conventional CoxPHR method showed lower AUC (0.668 (95% CI=0.617–0.719) for the training cohort and 0.597 (95% CI=0.474–0.719) for the validation cohort) compared to GB. New classification according to survival probability scores of the GB model identified four distinct prognostic subgroups that showed more discriminately classified prediction than the International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics staging system. Conclusion: Our novel GB-guided classification accurately identified the prognostic subgroups of patients with EOC and showed higher accuracy than the conventional method. This approach would be useful for accurate estimation of individual outcomes of EOC patients.

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