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커뮤니티
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논문 기본 정보
- 자료유형
- 학술저널
- 저자정보
- 발행연도
- 2021.11
- 수록면
- 1,363 - 1,371 (9page)
- DOI
- 10.7465/jkdi.2021.32.6.1363
이용수
초록· 키워드
오류제보하기
Recently, both the numbers and intensities of Atlantic tropical storms show an upward trend under the global warming condition. Statistical models play a very important role in understanding how the climate factors such as the cycle of El Ni~no/La Ni~na, the pattern of the northern hemisphere jet stream and tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures influence tropical storm activity. This paper proposes a hierarchical and statistical model which predicts the number of the Atlantic tropical storms using sea surface temperatures. Especially, Atlantic sea surface temperatures are incorporated into the model through empirical orthogonal functions. The proposed model is illustrated using the climate data during 1900-2002.
목차
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Statistical modeling
3. Analysis
4. Conclusion
References
참고문헌 (15)
참고문헌 신청
Berliner, L. M. / 1996 / In maximum entropy and bayesian methods. Hierarchical Bayesian time series models / Kluwer Academic Publisher
Berliner, L. M. / 2000 / Long-lead prediction of paci c ssts via bayesian dynamic modeling / Journal of Climate 13:3953~3968
Berliner, L. M. / 2003 / Uncertainty and climate change / Statistical Science 18:430~435
Emanuel, K. / 2005 / Increaseing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over past 30 years / Nature 436:686~688
Elsner, J. B. / 2006 / Prediction models for annual US hurricane counts / Journal of Climate 19:2935~2952
Berliner, L. M. / 2000 / Long-lead prediction of paci c ssts via bayesian dynamic modeling / Journal of Climate 13:3953~3968
Berliner, L. M. / 2003 / Uncertainty and climate change / Statistical Science 18:430~435
Emanuel, K. / 2005 / Increaseing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over past 30 years / Nature 436:686~688
Elsner, J. B. / 2006 / Prediction models for annual US hurricane counts / Journal of Climate 19:2935~2952
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