Anticipating the Need for Healthcare Resources Following the Escalation of the COVID-19 Outbreak in the Republic of Kazakhstan

Yuliya Semenova; Lyudmila Pivina; Zaituna Khismetova; Ardak Auyezova; Ardak Nurbakyt; Almagul Kauysheva; Dinara Ospanova; Gulmira Kuziyeva; Altynshash Kushkarova; Alexandr Ivankov; Natalya Glushkova

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자료유형: 학술저널

저자정보: Yuliya Semenova (Semey Medical University) Lyudmila Pivina (Semey Medical University) Zaituna Khismetova (Semey Medical University) Ardak Auyezova (Medical University Higher School of Public Health) Ardak Nurbakyt (Kazakhstan Medical University Higher School of Public Health) Almagul Kauysheva (Kazakhstan Medical University Higher School of Public Health) Dinara Ospanova (Kazakh Medical University of Continuing Education) Gulmira Kuziyeva (Al-Farabi Kazakh National University) Altynshash Kushkarova (South Kazakhstan Medical Academy) Alexandr Ivankov (Kazakh Medical University of Continuing Education) Natalya Glushkova (Kazakhstan Medical University Higher School of Public Health)

저널정보: 대한예방의학회 예방의학회지 예방의학회지 제53권 제6호

발행연도: 2020.1

수록면: 387 - 396 (10page)

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Objectives: The lack of advance planning in a public health emergency can lead to wasted resources and inadvertent loss of lives. This study is aimed at forecasting the needs for healthcare resources following the expansion of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in the Republic of Kazakhstan, focusing on hospital beds, equipment, and the professional workforce in light of the developing epidemiological situation and the data on resources currently available. Methods: We constructed a forecast model of the epidemiological scenario via the classic susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) approach. The World Health Organization’s COVID-19 Essential Supplies Forecasting Tool was used to evaluate the healthcare resources needed for the next 12 weeks. Results: Over the forecast period, there will be 104 713.7 hospital admissions due to severe disease and 34 904.5 hospital admissions due to critical disease. This will require 47 247.7 beds for severe disease and 1929.9 beds for critical disease at the peak of the COVID-19 outbreak. There will also be high needs for all categories of healthcare workers and for both diagnostic and treatment equipment. Thus, Republic of Kazakhstan faces the need for a rapid increase in available healthcare resources and/or for finding ways to redistribute resources effectively. Conclusions: Republic of Kazakhstan will be able to reduce the rates of infections and deaths among its population by developing and following a consistent strategy targeting COVID-19 in a number of inter-related directions.

#COVID-19 #Needs assessment #Health resources #Republic of Kazakhstan

참고문헌 (35)

참고문헌 신청

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Semenova Yuliya / 2020 / Epidemiological Characteristics and Forecast of COVID-19 Outbreak in the Republic of Kazakhstan / Journal of Korean Medical Science 35(24):1~12

World Health Organization / WHO Director-General’s opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 - 11 March 2020

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention / National pandemic influenza plans

Emanuel EJ / 2020 / Fair allocation of scarce medical resources in the time of Covid-19 / N Engl J Med 382(21):2049~2055

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