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Uncertainty Estimations of the Annual Energy Production in a Wind Farm by the Use of Monte Carlo Simulations and Measured Data
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측정 자료와 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 이용한 풍력발전단지의 연간발전량 불확도 추정

논문 기본 정보

Type
Academic journal
Author
Sooyoung Her (제주대학교) Jongchul Huh (제주대학교)
Journal
The Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers - B Vol.45 No.10(Wn.433) KCI Accredited Journals SCOPUS
Published
2021.10
Pages
517 - 529 (13page)
DOI
10.3795/KSME-B.2021.45.10.517

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Uncertainty Estimations of the Annual Energy Production in a Wind Farm by the Use of Monte Carlo Simulations and Measured Data
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Abstract· Keywords

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Uncertainty estimations of the annual energy production (AEP) are an important indicator for project feasibility assessments and project financing attraction of wind farm development projects. The AEP uncertainty estimation results can vary depending on the experience and know-how of the analyst regarding uncertainty components and criteria used. In this study, we developed a calculation method and procedure using measured data and Monte Carlo simulations at the site to address the problem in which the uncertainty estimation results are dependent on the analyst. The AEP uncertainty was estimated for four test cases: two onshore and two offshore wind farms. As the wind shear uncertainty, which is a nonlinear uncertainty factor, increased, the difference in the uncertainty of the AEP estimated using GUM and MCS increased. Moreover, the measure-correlate-predict uncertainty results influenced the AEP uncertainty significantly.
#Uncertainty(불확도) #Annual Energy Production(연간발전량) #Monte Carlo Simulations(몬테카를로 시뮬레이션) #Probability Distribution(확률분포) #Wind Farm(풍력발전단지)

Contents

초록
Abstract
1. 서론
2. AEP 불확도 추정에 대한 방법론
3. AEP 불확도 추정 결과
4. 결론
참고문헌(References)

References (37)

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Petković, D., Shamshirband, S., Kamsin, A., Lee, M., Anicic, O. and Nikolić, V., 2016, “RETRACTED: Survey of the Most Influential Parameters on the Wind Farm Net Present Value (NPV) by Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Approach,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 57, pp. 1270~1278. google schola Kim, H. and Kim, B., 2016, “Wind Resource Assessment and Comparative Economic Analysis Using AMOS Data on a 30 MW Wind Farm at Yulchon District in Korea,” Renewable Energy, Vol. 85, pp. 96~103. google schola Schweizer, J., Antonini, A., Govoni, L., Gottardi, G., Archetti, R., Supino, E., Berretta, C., Casadei, C. and Ozzi, C., 2016, “Investigating the Potential and Feasibility of an Offshore Wind Farm in the Northern Adriatic Sea,” Applied Energy, Vol. 177, pp. 449~463. google schola JCGM 100:2008, 2008, Evaluation of Measurement Data - Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement, International Bureau of Weights and Measures, Saint-Cloud, France. google schola JCGM 101:2008, 2008, Evaluation of Measurement Data - Supplement 1 to the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement - Propagation of Distributions Using a Monte Carlo Method, International Bureau of Weights and Measures, Saint-Cloud, France. google schola

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