지원사업
학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
커뮤니티
연구자들이 자신의 연구와 전문성을 널리 알리고, 새로운 협력의 기회를 만들 수 있는 네트워킹 공간이에요.
논문 기본 정보
- 자료유형
- 학술저널
- 저자정보
- 저널정보
- 대한산업공학회 Industrial Engineering & Management Systems Industrial Engineering & Management Systems Vol.19 No.3
- 발행연도
- 2020.9
- 수록면
- 622 - 643 (22page)
- DOI
- 10.7232/iems.2020.19.3.622
이용수
초록· 키워드
오류제보하기
Universal Health Coverage (UHC) is an abstract concept that initially has 3 dimensions i.e., coverage in population, coverage in health service and financial protection, but recently it is updated with the fourth one – sustainable financial resources. Thus, forecasting is crucial over here to help national leaders in the field make good plans and policies for future development and solutions to the previous mentioned issues. This study attempts to think outside the box by utilizing grey system theory in forecasting includes GM (1,1), Grey Verhulst Model, DGM (1,1) and DGM (2,1) to identify forecasting values of variables related to UHC indicators with secondary data ranging from 2009 to 2017 which are available on reliable sources such as General Statistic Office, Ministry of Health and WHO. Moreover, error inspection tools such as MAPE, MAD, MSE, RMSE are used to identify the accuracy of each forecasting models. In general, GM (1,1), Verhulst and DGM (1,1) are found having high ability to make prediction on analysis variables in this research, whilst DGM (2,1) usually generates extremely high errors. Therefore, values of variables used to indirectly calculate UHC indicators are only from either GM (1,1) or DGM (1,1) or Verhulst.
목차
ABSTRACT
1. INTRODUCTION
2. LITERATURE REVIEW
3. METHODOLOGY DEVELOPMENT AND DATA COLLECTION
4. DATA ANALYSIS AND RESULTS
5. CONCLUSION AND DISCUSSION
REFERENCE
참고문헌 (26)
참고문헌 신청
An, X. / 2012 / Shortterm prediction of wind power using EMD and chaotic theory / Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation 17(2):1036~1042
Ana-Maria, B. / 2013 / Application of autoregressive models for forecasting marine insurance market / Ovidius University Annals, Series Economic Sciences 13(1):1125~1129
Rifat Atun / 2013 / Universal health coverage in Turkey: enhancement of equity / The Lancet 382(9886):65~99
Julong, D. / 1989 / Introduction to grey system theory / The Journal of Grey System 1(1):1~24
Ngan Do / 2014 / Moving toward Universal Coverage of Health Insurance in Vietnam: Barriers, Facilitating Factors, and Lessons from Korea / Journal of Korean Medical Science 29(7):919~925
Ana-Maria, B. / 2013 / Application of autoregressive models for forecasting marine insurance market / Ovidius University Annals, Series Economic Sciences 13(1):1125~1129
Rifat Atun / 2013 / Universal health coverage in Turkey: enhancement of equity / The Lancet 382(9886):65~99
Julong, D. / 1989 / Introduction to grey system theory / The Journal of Grey System 1(1):1~24
Ngan Do / 2014 / Moving toward Universal Coverage of Health Insurance in Vietnam: Barriers, Facilitating Factors, and Lessons from Korea / Journal of Korean Medical Science 29(7):919~925
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