Mortality Characteristic and Prediction of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma in China from 1991 to 2013

Xu, Zhen-Xi; Lin, Zhi-Xiong; Fang, Jia-Ying; Wu, Ku-Sheng; Du, Pei-Ling; Zeng, Yang; Tang, Wen-Rui; Xu, Xiao-Ling; Lin, Kun

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자료유형: 학술저널

저자정보: Xu, Zhen-Xi (Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College) Lin, Zhi-Xiong (Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College) Fang, Jia-Ying (Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College) Wu, Ku-Sheng (Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College) Du, Pei-Ling (Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College) Zeng, Yang (Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College) Tang, Wen-Rui (Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College) Xu, Xiao-Ling (Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College) Lin, Kun (Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College)

저널정보: 아시아태평양암예방학회 Asian Pacific journal of cancer prevention : APJCP Asian Pacific journal of cancer prevention : APJCP 제16권 제15호

발행연도: 2015.1

수록면: 6,729 - 6,734 (6page)

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Background: To analyze the mortality distribution of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China from 1991 to 2013, to predict the mortality in the ensuing five years, and to provide evidence for prevention and treatment of nasopharyngeal carcinoma. Materials and Methods: Mortality data for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma in China from 1991 to 2013 were used to describe its epidemiological characteristics, such as the change of the standardized mortality rate, sex and age differences, urban-rural differences. Trend-surface analysis was used to study the geographical distribution of the mortality. Curve estimation, time series, gray modeling, and joinpoint regression were used to predict the mortality for the ensuing five years in the future. Results: In China, the standardized mortality rate of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma increased with time from 1996, reaching the peak values of $1.45/10^5$ at the year of 2002, and decreased gradually afterwards. With males being 1.51 times higher than females, and the city had a higher rate than the rural during the past two decades. The mortality rate increased from age 40. Geographical analysis showed the mortality rate increased from middle to southern China. Conclusions: The standardized mortality rate of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma is falling. The regional disease control for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma should be focused on Guangdong province of China, and the key targets for prevention and treatment are rural men, especially after the age of 40. The mortality of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma will decrease in the next five years.

#Nasopharyngeal carcinoma #standardized mortality #geographic distribution #prediction #China

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