Breast Cancer in Lampang, a Province in Northern Thailand: Analysis of 1993-2012 Incidence Data and Future Trends

Lalitwongsa, Somkiat; Pongnikorn, Donsuk; Daoprasert, Karnchana; Sriplung, Hutcha; Bilheem, Surichai

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자료유형: 학술저널

저자정보: Lalitwongsa, Somkiat (Lampang Cancer Hospital) Pongnikorn, Donsuk (Lampang Cancer Hospital) Daoprasert, Karnchana (Lampang Cancer Hospital) Sriplung, Hutcha (Epidemiology Unit, Faculty of Medicine, Prince of Songkla University) Bilheem, Surichai (Epidemiology Unit, Faculty of Medicine, Prince of Songkla University)

저널정보: 아시아태평양암예방학회 Asian Pacific journal of cancer prevention : APJCP Asian Pacific journal of cancer prevention : APJCP 제16권 제18호

발행연도: 2015.1

수록면: 8,327 - 8,333 (7page)

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Background: The recent epidemiologic transition in Thailand, with decreasing incidence of infectious diseases along with increasing rates of chronic conditions, including cancer, is a serious problem for the country. Breast cancer has the highest incidence rates among females throughout Thailand. Lampang is a province in the upper part of Northern Thailand. A study was needed to identify the current burden, and the future trends of breast cancer in upper Northern Thai women. Materials and Methods: Here we used cancer incidence data from the Lampang Cancer Registry to characterize and analyze the local incidence of breast cancer. Joinpoint analysis, age period cohort model and Nordpred package were used to investigate the incidences of breast cancer in the province from 1993 to 2012 and to project future trends from 2013 to 2030. Results: Age-standardized incidence rates (world) of breast cancer in the upper parts of Northern Thailand increased from 16.7 to 26.3 cases per 100,000 female population which is equivalent to an annual percentage change of 2.0-2.8%, according to the method used. Linear drift effects played a role in shaping the increase of incidence. The three projection method suggested that incidence rates would continue to increase in the future with incidence for women aged 50 and above, increasing at a higher rate than for women below the age of 50. Conclusions: The current early detection measures increase detection rates of early disease. Preparation of a budget for treatment facilities and human resources, both in surgical and medical oncology, is essential.

#Breast cancer, cancer incidence #joinpoint #age period cohort model #Nordpred #Lampang #Thailand

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