지원사업
학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
커뮤니티
연구자들이 자신의 연구와 전문성을 널리 알리고, 새로운 협력의 기회를 만들 수 있는 네트워킹 공간이에요.
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초록· 키워드
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PURPOSES : This study is to investigate the relationship of socioeconomic characteristics and road network structure with traffic growth patterns. The findings is to be used to tweak traffic forecast provided by traditional four step process using relevant socioeconomic and road network data. METHODS: Comprehensive statistical analysis is used to identify key explanatory variables using historical observations on traffic forecast, actual traffic counts and surrounding environments. Based on statistical results, a multiple regression model is developed to predict the effects of socioeconomic and road network attributes on traffic growth patterns. The validation of the proposed model is also performed using a different set of historical data. RESULTS : The statistical analysis results indicate that several socioeconomic characteristics and road network structure cleary affect the tendency of over- and under-estimation of road traffics. Among them, land use is a key factor which is revealed by a factor that traffic forecast for urban road tends to be under-estimated while rural road traffic prediction is generally over-estimated. The model application suggests that tweaking the traffic forecast using the proposed model can reduce the discrepancies between the predicted and actual traffic counts from 30.4% to 21.9%. CONCLUSIONS : Prediction of road traffic growth patterns based on surrounding socioeconomic and road network attributes can help develop the optimal strategy of road construction plan by enhancing reliability of traffic forecast as well as tendency of traffic growth.
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참고문헌 (12)
참고문헌 신청
Cheng, J. / 2003 / Urban growth pattern modeling: a case study of Wuhan city, PR China / Landscape and Urban Planning 62:199~217
Chung, Sungbong / 2007 / Demand forecasting errors in road projects: Causes and effects / The Korean Transportation Institute
Funderburg, R. / 2010 / New highways and land use change: Results from a quasiexperimental research design / Transportation Research Part A 44:76~98
Harvey, M. / 2011 / Review of traffic forecasting performance - toll roads, Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (for the Australian Department of Infrastructure and Transport)
Jung, Ilho / 2005 / Enhancement of reliability for traffic demand estimation -Focusing on interval estimation model for traffic demand- / Korea Research Institute for Human Settlements
Chung, Sungbong / 2007 / Demand forecasting errors in road projects: Causes and effects / The Korean Transportation Institute
Funderburg, R. / 2010 / New highways and land use change: Results from a quasiexperimental research design / Transportation Research Part A 44:76~98
Harvey, M. / 2011 / Review of traffic forecasting performance - toll roads, Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (for the Australian Department of Infrastructure and Transport)
Jung, Ilho / 2005 / Enhancement of reliability for traffic demand estimation -Focusing on interval estimation model for traffic demand- / Korea Research Institute for Human Settlements
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