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The influx of marine exotic and alien species is disrupting marine ecosystems and aquaculture. Herdmania momus, reported as an invasive species, is distributed all along the coast of Jeju Island and has been confirmed to be distributed and spread to Busan. The potential habitats and distribution of H. momus were estimated using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model, quantum geographic information system (QGIS), and Bio-ocean rasters for analysis of climate and environment (Bio-ORACLE), which can predict the distribution and spread based only on species occurrence data using species distribution model (SDM). Temperature and salinity were selected as environmental variables based on previous literature. Additionally, two different representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were set up to estimate future and potential habitats owing to climate change. The prediction of potential habitats and distribution for H. momus using MaxEnt confirmed maximum temperature as the highest contributor (77.1%), and mean salinity, the lowest (0%). And the potential habitats and distribution of H. momus were the highest on Jeju Island, and no potential habitat or distribution was seen in the Yellow Sea. Different RCP scenarios showed that at RCP 4.5, H. momus would be distributed along the coast of Jeju Island in the year 2050 and that the distribution would expand to parts of the Korea Strait by the year 2100. RCP 8.5, the distribution in 2050 is predicted to be similar to that at RCP 4.5; however, by 2100, the distribution is predicted to expand to parts of the Korea Strait and the East Sea. This study can be utilized as basic data to effectively control the ecological injuries by H. momus by predicting its spread and distribution both at present and in the future.
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참고문헌 (48)
참고문헌 신청
Assis J / 2018 / Bio -ORACLE v2.0: Extending marine data layers for bioclimatic modelling / Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 27:277~284
Beaugrand G / 2008 / Causes and projections of abrupt climate-driven ecosystem shifts in the North Atlantic / Ecol. Lett. 11:1157~1168
Capinha C / 2012 / Predicting the impact of climate change on the invasive decapods of the Iberian inland waters: an assessment of reliability / Biol. Invasions 14:1737~1751
조강현 / 2015 / 한반도에서 기후변화에 따른 수변 외래식물인 털물참새피의분포 변화 예측 / Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure 2(3):206~215
Compton TJ / 2010 / Thermogeography predicts the potential global range of the invasive European green crab (Carcinus maenas) / Divers. Distrib. 16:243~255
Beaugrand G / 2008 / Causes and projections of abrupt climate-driven ecosystem shifts in the North Atlantic / Ecol. Lett. 11:1157~1168
Capinha C / 2012 / Predicting the impact of climate change on the invasive decapods of the Iberian inland waters: an assessment of reliability / Biol. Invasions 14:1737~1751
조강현 / 2015 / 한반도에서 기후변화에 따른 수변 외래식물인 털물참새피의분포 변화 예측 / Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure 2(3):206~215
Compton TJ / 2010 / Thermogeography predicts the potential global range of the invasive European green crab (Carcinus maenas) / Divers. Distrib. 16:243~255
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