Modification of the Conventional Influenza Epidemic Models Using Environmental Parameters in Iran

Ahmad Naserpor; Sharareh R. Niakan Kalhori; Marjan Ghazisaeedi; Rasoul Azizi; Mohammad Hosseini Ravandi; Sajad Sharafie

추천

검색

자료유형: 학술저널

저자정보: Ahmad Naserpor Sharareh R. Niakan Kalhori Marjan Ghazisaeedi Rasoul Azizi Mohammad Hosseini Ravandi Sajad Sharafie

저널정보: 대한의료정보학회 Healthcare Informatics Research Healthcare Informatics Research 제25권 제1호

발행연도: 2019.1

수록면: 27 - 32 (6page)

이용수

📌

연구주제

📖

연구배경

🔬

연구방법

🏆

연구결과

초록· 키워드

오류제보하기

Objectives: The association between the spread of infectious diseases and climate parameters has been widely studied in recent decades. In this paper, we formulate, exploit, and compare three variations of the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model incorporating climate data. The SIR model is a well-studied model to investigate the dynamics of influenza viruses; however, the improved versions of the classic model have been developed by introducing external factors into the model. Methods: The modification models are derived by multiplying a linear combination of three complementary factors, namely, temperature (T), precipitation (P), and humidity (H) by the transmission rate. The performance of these proposed models is evaluated against the standard model for two outbreak seasons. Results: The values of the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and the Akaike information criterion (AIC) improved as they declined from 8.76 to 7.05 and from 98.12 to 93.01 for season 2013/14, respectively. Similarly, for season 2014/15, the RMSE and AIC decreased from 8.10 to 6.45 and from 117.73 to 107.91, respectively. The estimated values of R(t) in the framework of the standard and modified SIR models are also compared. Conclusions: Through simulations, we determined that among the studied environmental factors, precipitation showed the strongest correlation with the transmission dynamics of influenza. Moreover, the SIR+P+T model is the most efficient for simulating the behavioral dynamics of influenza in the area of interest.

참고문헌 (19)

참고문헌 신청

World Health Organization / Immunization, vaccines and biologicals

Michael J. Paul / 2014 / Twitter Improves Influenza Forecasting / PLoS Currents

Tchuenche JM / 2011 / The impact of media coverage on the transmission dynamics of human influenza / BMC Public Health 11(Suppl 1):S5

Shaman J / 2010 / Absolute humidity and the seasonal onset of influenza in the continental United States / PLoS Biol 8(2):e1000316

McDevitt J / 2010 / Role of absolute humidity in the inactivation of influenza viruses on stainless steel surfaces at elevated temperatures / Appl Environ Microbiol 76(12):3943~3947

함께 읽어보면 좋을 논문

논문 유사도에 따라 DBpia 가 추천하는 논문입니다. 함께 보면 좋을 연관 논문을 확인해보세요!