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Due to frequent occurrence of abnormal weather, the need to improve the accuracy of subseasonal prediction has increased. Here we analyze the performance of weekly predictions out to 6 weeks by GloSea5 climate model. The performance in circulation field from January 1991 to December 2010 is first analyzed at each grid point using the 500-hPa geopotential height. The anomaly correlation coefficient and mean-square skill score, calculated each week against the ECWMF ERA-Interim reanalysis data, illustrate better prediction skills regionally in the tropics and over the ocean and seasonally during winter. Secondly, we evaluate the predictability of 7 major teleconnection patterns in the Northern Hemisphere: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), East Atlantic (EA), East Atlantic/Western Russia (EAWR), Scandinavia (SCAND), Polar/Eurasia (PE), West Pacific (WP), Pacific-North American (PNA). Skillful predictability of the patterns turns out to be approximately 1~2 weeks. During summer, the EAWR and SCAND, which exhibit a wave pattern propagating over Eurasia, show a considerably lower skill than the other 5 patterns, while in winter, the WP and PNA, occurring in the Pacific region, maintain the skill up to 2 weeks. To account for the model’s bias in reproducing the teleconnection patterns, we measure the similarity between the teleconnection patterns obtained in each lead time. In January, the model’s teleconnection pattern remains similar until lead time 3, while a sharp decrease of similarity can be seen from lead time 2 in July.
목차
Abstract
1. 서론
2. 자료 및 예측성능 측도
3. 주별 예측성능 평가 결과
4. 요약 및 결론
REFERENCES
참고문헌 (37)
참고문헌 신청
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Barnston, A. G. / 1987 / Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns / Mon. Wea. Rev 115:1083~1126
M. J. Best / 2011 / The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), model description – Part 1: Energy and water fluxes / Geoscientific Model Development 4(3):677~699
Andrew Brown / 2012 / Unified Modeling and Prediction of Weather and Climate: A 25-Year Journey / Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 93(12):1865~1877
Jung Choi / 2016 / Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Skills of Near-Surface Air Temperature in the CMIP5 Decadal Hindcast Experiments / Journal of Climate 29(4):1511~1527
Barnston, A. G. / 1987 / Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns / Mon. Wea. Rev 115:1083~1126
M. J. Best / 2011 / The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), model description – Part 1: Energy and water fluxes / Geoscientific Model Development 4(3):677~699
Andrew Brown / 2012 / Unified Modeling and Prediction of Weather and Climate: A 25-Year Journey / Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 93(12):1865~1877
Jung Choi / 2016 / Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Skills of Near-Surface Air Temperature in the CMIP5 Decadal Hindcast Experiments / Journal of Climate 29(4):1511~1527
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