지원사업
학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
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연구자들이 자신의 연구와 전문성을 널리 알리고, 새로운 협력의 기회를 만들 수 있는 네트워킹 공간이에요.
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초록· 키워드
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Objectives: Elevated temperatures during summer months have been reported since the early 20th century to be associated with increased daily mortality. However, future death impacts of high temperatures resulting from climate change could be variously estimated in consideration of the future changes in historical temperaturemortality relationships, mortality, and population. This study examined the future death burden of high temperatures resulting from climate change in Seoul over the period of 2001-2040.
Methods: We calculated yearly death burden attributable to high temperatures stemming from climate change in Seoul from 2001-2040. These future death burdens from high temperature were computed by multiplying relative risk, temperature, mortality, and population at any future point. To incorporate adaptation, we assumed future changes in temperature-mortality relationships (i.e. threshold temperatures and slopes), which were estimated as short-term temperature effects using a Poisson regression model.
Results: The results show that climate change will lead to a substantial increase in summer high temperaturerelated death burden in the future, even considering adaptation by the population group. The yearly death burden attributable to elevated temperatures ranged from approximately 0.7 deaths per 100,000 people in 2001-2010 to about 1.5 deaths per 100,000 people in Seoul in 2036-2040.
Conclusions: This study suggests that adaptation strategies and communication regarding future health risks stemming from climate change are necessary for the public and for the political leadership of South Korea.
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등록된 정보가 없습니다.
참고문헌 (28)
참고문헌 신청
Basu R / 2002 / Relation between elevated ambient temperature and mortality: a review of the epidemiologic evidence / Epidemiol Rev 24 : 190 ~ 202
Campbell-Lendrum D / 2007 / Climate Change: Quantifying the Health Impact at National and Local Levels / World Health Organization
Costello A / 2009 / Managing the health effects of climate change: Lancet and University College London Institute for Global Health Commission / Lancet 373 (9676) : 1693 ~ 1
Dessai S. / 2003 / Heat stress and mortality in Lisbon Part II. An assessment of the potential impcat of climate change / Int J Biometeorol 48 : 37 ~ 44
Donaldson G / 2001 / McMichael AJ. Heat- and Cold-related mortality and morbidity and climate change, In Health Effects of Climate change in the UK / Department of Health : 70 ~ 80
Campbell-Lendrum D / 2007 / Climate Change: Quantifying the Health Impact at National and Local Levels / World Health Organization
Costello A / 2009 / Managing the health effects of climate change: Lancet and University College London Institute for Global Health Commission / Lancet 373 (9676) : 1693 ~ 1
Dessai S. / 2003 / Heat stress and mortality in Lisbon Part II. An assessment of the potential impcat of climate change / Int J Biometeorol 48 : 37 ~ 44
Donaldson G / 2001 / McMichael AJ. Heat- and Cold-related mortality and morbidity and climate change, In Health Effects of Climate change in the UK / Department of Health : 70 ~ 80
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