지원사업
학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
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연구자들이 자신의 연구와 전문성을 널리 알리고, 새로운 협력의 기회를 만들 수 있는 네트워킹 공간이에요.
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This research analyzes the long-run and short-run dynamic properties of apartment prices inSeoul by using quarterly time series data from 2006 to 2012. In order to analyze the long-rundynamic characteristics of apartment prices, market equilibrium prices are estimated by using areduced-form equation arising from the equilibrium condition of demand and supply. For analyzingthe short-run dynamic features of apartment prices, a price adjustment model is built and estimatedon the standpoints of serial correlation and mean reversion. In the first-stage of analysis, panelestimation with fixed effects of "Gu" dummy variables fits the data very well and all variables inthe equation have the expected signs and are statistically significant at the 5% level. Thesecond-stage of analysis uses the estimates of the equilibrium prices from the first-stage. Theempirical results show that house prices exhibit a strong serial correlation with a coefficient of0.489, and the rate of mean reversion is 0.165. The realizations of the estimated serial correlationand mean reversion are spread over 25 "Gu" regions. Sixty-seven percent of observations lie inthe no-oscillation and convergent region and another 32.2% falls in the no-oscillation andconvergent region which implies that during the sample period in Seoul, the movements ofapartment price can be largely explained by the long-run and short-run models, and there havebeen no sustainable apartment price bubbles.
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참고문헌 (13)
참고문헌 신청
Abraham, J. / 1996 / Bubbles in Metropolitan Housing Markets / Journal of Housing Research 7 (2) : 191 ~ 207
Arbel, Yuval. / 2009 / Mean Reversion and Momentum : Another Look at the Price-Volume Correlation in the Real Estate Market / J Real Estate Finan Econ 39 : 316 ~ 335
Capozza, D. R. / 2004 / An Anatomy of Price Dynamics in Illiquid Markets : Analysis and Evidence from Local Housing Markets / Real Estate Economics 32 (1) : 1 ~ 32
Capozza, D.R. / 1989 / The Fundamentals of Land Prices and Urban Growth / Journal of Urban Economics 26 (2) : 95 ~ 306
Case, K.E. / 1988 / The Behavior of Home Buyers in Boom and Post-Boom Markets / New England Economic Review : 29 ~ 46
Arbel, Yuval. / 2009 / Mean Reversion and Momentum : Another Look at the Price-Volume Correlation in the Real Estate Market / J Real Estate Finan Econ 39 : 316 ~ 335
Capozza, D. R. / 2004 / An Anatomy of Price Dynamics in Illiquid Markets : Analysis and Evidence from Local Housing Markets / Real Estate Economics 32 (1) : 1 ~ 32
Capozza, D.R. / 1989 / The Fundamentals of Land Prices and Urban Growth / Journal of Urban Economics 26 (2) : 95 ~ 306
Case, K.E. / 1988 / The Behavior of Home Buyers in Boom and Post-Boom Markets / New England Economic Review : 29 ~ 46
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